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First part in a multi part series.
Beginners with $1000 starting capital
(advice for white & gray players)
1. Get free cash
a) Daily Login $25 = $ 9125 a year
b) Creating markets = $100 (the first 5 each) afterwards every 5th market gives you $250 (limited to the first 100 markets)
c) Bring your friends = each followed recommodation $250
d) Watch out for special promotions – green area start page
• ... watching out for special promos!
2. Be careful – never invest more than 10% in one market
3. Use small bets up to $100 to get a better return above 100 the math isn´t so good
4. Use a lot = only bet short term. $ 200 on the next US President won´t make you rich – try for 10 % daily
5. Stay fully invested – only reserve cash for soon to start daily markets
6. Use 90% markets (not sports) that settle today – if you earn 10% in a day that is very good and the risk is very low if you follow 3. (avoid long suspend times)
7. Cashing in loosing options fast can safe bets that would be worth 0 at settlement. Fine is 10%
e.g. Ms with time alternatives July August September – sell July if its August 1st or its no longer probable – KtN allows selling options that are no longer possible outcomes
8. Watch your Markts (read settlement details)
9. Check your important Markets before suspend date (maybe google search) to invest more or change options
Extra: Win the KtN coffee mug and sell it for a million at ebay ;-)
Beginners with $1000 starting capital
(advice for white & gray players)
1. Get free cash
a) Daily Login $25 = $ 9125 a year
b) Creating markets = $100 (the first 5 each) afterwards every 5th market gives you $250 (limited to the first 100 markets)
c) Bring your friends = each followed recommodation $250
d) Watch out for special promotions – green area start page
• ... watching out for special promos!
2. Be careful – never invest more than 10% in one market
3. Use small bets up to $100 to get a better return above 100 the math isn´t so good
4. Use a lot = only bet short term. $ 200 on the next US President won´t make you rich – try for 10 % daily
5. Stay fully invested – only reserve cash for soon to start daily markets
6. Use 90% markets (not sports) that settle today – if you earn 10% in a day that is very good and the risk is very low if you follow 3. (avoid long suspend times)
7. Cashing in loosing options fast can safe bets that would be worth 0 at settlement. Fine is 10%
e.g. Ms with time alternatives July August September – sell July if its August 1st or its no longer probable – KtN allows selling options that are no longer possible outcomes
8. Watch your Markts (read settlement details)
9. Check your important Markets before suspend date (maybe google search) to invest more or change options
Extra: Win the KtN coffee mug and sell it for a million at ebay ;-)
Replies:
Buy the way following the leaders is a very dangerous strategy at the moment. Its much better to follow the daily markets (8.) and think for yourself. The millionaires use some very dangerous strategies and can afford to lose big parts of their networth.
Excellent, hfl!
My variation of some of the above rules -
2a. Keep every single bet below 5% of available cash, and do not exceed 10% of networth on any single market, at any time.
2b. Sometimes it is important to decide and bet quickly, in order to get good odds - be careful. I use a fixed set of bet amounts, say 2% is "normal", 5% is "good odds", 10% is "a steal". Remember that if you later deside this specific option deserves larger investment - you can always bet again.
4a. Also look up markets by order of creation - sometimes the creator doesn't know what you do about the market, you may get very good odds.
4b. If time allows, have a look at the History tab and see what the others are doing - bets, amounts, odds, cash-ins and returns, but never follow blindly other people moves - you should know exactly why you make a bet.
10. If you become short on cash, cool a bit - stay away for a day or two, look in History of suspended markets how the others are doing, and try to guess the reason of their moves. You may also have the time to think of a market or two of you own. If you have problems when creating markets, try to get the attention of the Editor, a superuser, or kruijs (if you suspect a bug).
My variation of some of the above rules -
2a. Keep every single bet below 5% of available cash, and do not exceed 10% of networth on any single market, at any time.
2b. Sometimes it is important to decide and bet quickly, in order to get good odds - be careful. I use a fixed set of bet amounts, say 2% is "normal", 5% is "good odds", 10% is "a steal". Remember that if you later deside this specific option deserves larger investment - you can always bet again.
4a. Also look up markets by order of creation - sometimes the creator doesn't know what you do about the market, you may get very good odds.
4b. If time allows, have a look at the History tab and see what the others are doing - bets, amounts, odds, cash-ins and returns, but never follow blindly other people moves - you should know exactly why you make a bet.
10. If you become short on cash, cool a bit - stay away for a day or two, look in History of suspended markets how the others are doing, and try to guess the reason of their moves. You may also have the time to think of a market or two of you own. If you have problems when creating markets, try to get the attention of the Editor, a superuser, or kruijs (if you suspect a bug).
Part 2 for beginners
10. Ask questions with message, comment, forum
10. Knowledge helps (careful with fandom – more in advanced strategies)
11. Post your own markets, if there is nothing you know or are interested in
12. Lower percentages gives far better return
13. Don´t be greedy – if your value is up and you are still unshure about the outcome cash in
14. Bockmark your invested markets or ones you are interested in
15. Before predicting, ask yourself: What is it worth for you? If you rate a 5% at 15% - buy
10. Ask questions with message, comment, forum
10. Knowledge helps (careful with fandom – more in advanced strategies)
11. Post your own markets, if there is nothing you know or are interested in
12. Lower percentages gives far better return
13. Don´t be greedy – if your value is up and you are still unshure about the outcome cash in
14. Bockmark your invested markets or ones you are interested in
15. Before predicting, ask yourself: What is it worth for you? If you rate a 5% at 15% - buy
Part 3 - Beginners strategies:
I tried to prioritize the advise a bit 3.) beats 17.) but if you have money left try 17.
16. Understand the market – e.g. the weekly gallup market on Obama´s approval rating is easy to forecast if you read the information right having 4 days of seven and the values of the week before should give you hints.
17. At new markets you can buy to start a trend – if the others follow you can sell 10-20% higher in a few hours if the others bet against you, you are stuck or have to take loses by selling.
18. Time the market – there are markets were you can chose an early option and try again if that fails or the time is up. There once was a question about when a San Francisco bridge repair would be finished – every day I changed options. The hurricane markets are similar. These are very forgiving questions fail & try again.
19. Avoid markets where your prediction has already hit 95%, even if it will close in a few days. You can make more profit on some other market by that time.
20. Risky strategy based on 13. to gain more start money bet your daily login $25 on very low options (< 2% - settling soon) where you have some hope. If you get 1250 (2%) or 2500 (1%) you now have more capital to bet more.
Good luck!
I tried to prioritize the advise a bit 3.) beats 17.) but if you have money left try 17.
16. Understand the market – e.g. the weekly gallup market on Obama´s approval rating is easy to forecast if you read the information right having 4 days of seven and the values of the week before should give you hints.
17. At new markets you can buy to start a trend – if the others follow you can sell 10-20% higher in a few hours if the others bet against you, you are stuck or have to take loses by selling.
18. Time the market – there are markets were you can chose an early option and try again if that fails or the time is up. There once was a question about when a San Francisco bridge repair would be finished – every day I changed options. The hurricane markets are similar. These are very forgiving questions fail & try again.
19. Avoid markets where your prediction has already hit 95%, even if it will close in a few days. You can make more profit on some other market by that time.
20. Risky strategy based on 13. to gain more start money bet your daily login $25 on very low options (< 2% - settling soon) where you have some hope. If you get 1250 (2%) or 2500 (1%) you now have more capital to bet more.
Good luck!
Understanding aspects of $KtN: 1) where $KtN money comes from--
People wonder where money comes from, in KtN, perhaps..
To my way of thinking, it may be understood as follows.
Kruijs, in his great wisdom, like an independent country, simply prints it, and awards it for various things... good deeds, getting new members, betting on questions correctly, etc...
Now, money is like sunshine falling on the grass; it contains energy.
The grass accrues it, and some animals, let us call them sheep, may eat the grass, gathering some energy in. Animals higher up on the food chain (predators) may eat these animals (prey), thereby gathering more condensed energy, as the sheep do more gathering of the direct (less concentrated energy).. Thus, one may visualize the $KtN as an energy dispersing-tree like structure.. Just as knowledge flows up (as the German physicist Boltzmann figured out long ago, in terms of entropy and temperature) in terms of logarithms, so too, this money is similarly related, and the more one affects the probabilities, the more the "knowledge" one adds to the choices..It is for this reason that low probability events can yield the greatest gains, because one is adding the most knowledge (if you buy it).
Say you buy a 1% probability event, and everyone else buys the other event (therefore 99%), now you are saying that you are 100x as knowledgeable as the average person on this platform (an unlikely event). Still THAT should be rewarded, if you are right, and it is!! But, if you go along with the herd, this is more sheep-like behavior (you are just getting the average grass energy), and bet the standard odds when they were only 98%, and increase it to 99%, then that adds little knowledge, and you do not gain much, but risk losing all your money for adding very , very little knowledge!
Thus a little mathematics and a little statistics, and it is all clear... thanks to Messieur Boltzmann, and his predecessor, Messieur Maxwell (who also was no slouch)..
People wonder where money comes from, in KtN, perhaps..
To my way of thinking, it may be understood as follows.
Kruijs, in his great wisdom, like an independent country, simply prints it, and awards it for various things... good deeds, getting new members, betting on questions correctly, etc...
Now, money is like sunshine falling on the grass; it contains energy.
The grass accrues it, and some animals, let us call them sheep, may eat the grass, gathering some energy in. Animals higher up on the food chain (predators) may eat these animals (prey), thereby gathering more condensed energy, as the sheep do more gathering of the direct (less concentrated energy).. Thus, one may visualize the $KtN as an energy dispersing-tree like structure.. Just as knowledge flows up (as the German physicist Boltzmann figured out long ago, in terms of entropy and temperature) in terms of logarithms, so too, this money is similarly related, and the more one affects the probabilities, the more the "knowledge" one adds to the choices..It is for this reason that low probability events can yield the greatest gains, because one is adding the most knowledge (if you buy it).
Say you buy a 1% probability event, and everyone else buys the other event (therefore 99%), now you are saying that you are 100x as knowledgeable as the average person on this platform (an unlikely event). Still THAT should be rewarded, if you are right, and it is!! But, if you go along with the herd, this is more sheep-like behavior (you are just getting the average grass energy), and bet the standard odds when they were only 98%, and increase it to 99%, then that adds little knowledge, and you do not gain much, but risk losing all your money for adding very , very little knowledge!
Thus a little mathematics and a little statistics, and it is all clear... thanks to Messieur Boltzmann, and his predecessor, Messieur Maxwell (who also was no slouch)..
hfl13 
(1) 
Don´t know if the prvious post belong sin this thread?
Bow the missing parts:
Part 4:
21. When you are not gambling with undervalued options but predicting seriously the outcome of an event, you should be confident with your stakes and keep cool. No matter how the market develops: You have chosen your option - You were sure of the outcome than. Why should that change all of a sudden? Best way playing the serious predictions is to stake your bet and leave. Fire and forget. This will not bring maximum gain in shortest time, but it will pay out. In this case: Don't sell to prevent further loss if a position goes down.
My addition – if your option goes down & you are shure buy more.
22. Don´t be stuborn and let your potential loses influence you. If you have a losing position don´t try to cover it up – sell or forget that investment. Be careful of different interpretations if everyone bets against you it could be that you are missing an interpretation/rule or a settlement detail. Ask in comments or forum?
Trying to keep investing to protect your networth is not a wise choice. Cash in if the Admins & Author take the other side (lost 200K that way in HD once and almost quit)
________
This posts are a mix of many players advice paraphrased and reshaped based on my own experiences with now having played for three years on three different sites. This intends to be a summary of kruijs discussion “The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUBâ€.
Here is some original funny advice from kruijs:
In either case: Make your own decisions.
Do not trust on the movement of the market.
- They are caused by speculation
Do not trust the comments.
- They only aim at you predicting certain, wrong outcomes
Do not trust any advice or suggestions.
- They will put you off the scent
Do not trust other players.
- They want your money
Do not trust us.
- It isn't coincidentally us being on top of the leaderboards
Do not trust these guidelines.
- As they are written by us
Happy gambling!
hfl13: KtN is a much nicer community than Hubdub as you can see. These parts of beginners guide were put together to help and get more players competing. I enjoy battling for position many times more than having a safe distance.
Have fun overtaking your leaderboard neighbor !
Bow the missing parts:
Part 4:
21. When you are not gambling with undervalued options but predicting seriously the outcome of an event, you should be confident with your stakes and keep cool. No matter how the market develops: You have chosen your option - You were sure of the outcome than. Why should that change all of a sudden? Best way playing the serious predictions is to stake your bet and leave. Fire and forget. This will not bring maximum gain in shortest time, but it will pay out. In this case: Don't sell to prevent further loss if a position goes down.
My addition – if your option goes down & you are shure buy more.
22. Don´t be stuborn and let your potential loses influence you. If you have a losing position don´t try to cover it up – sell or forget that investment. Be careful of different interpretations if everyone bets against you it could be that you are missing an interpretation/rule or a settlement detail. Ask in comments or forum?
Trying to keep investing to protect your networth is not a wise choice. Cash in if the Admins & Author take the other side (lost 200K that way in HD once and almost quit)
________
This posts are a mix of many players advice paraphrased and reshaped based on my own experiences with now having played for three years on three different sites. This intends to be a summary of kruijs discussion “The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUBâ€.
Here is some original funny advice from kruijs:
In either case: Make your own decisions.
Do not trust on the movement of the market.
- They are caused by speculation
Do not trust the comments.
- They only aim at you predicting certain, wrong outcomes
Do not trust any advice or suggestions.
- They will put you off the scent
Do not trust other players.
- They want your money
Do not trust us.
- It isn't coincidentally us being on top of the leaderboards
Do not trust these guidelines.
- As they are written by us
Happy gambling!
hfl13: KtN is a much nicer community than Hubdub as you can see. These parts of beginners guide were put together to help and get more players competing. I enjoy battling for position many times more than having a safe distance.
Have fun overtaking your leaderboard neighbor !
Part 5: Advanced strategies (green and above)
No order – not all work good with the current market model
A. Insurance or hedging your bets – I often buy very cheap options below 3% just to
win in every case/limit my loses.
B. aggressive strategy / betting Outsiders
Do not place your bets when your predictions are at or above 50%. While you may be sure of the outcome, again, your return is not agressive. Take a position when the percentage of your choice is below 40% (preferably less) in order to get a better return. In truth, if you want to grow rapidly, you need to shop around a bit, a take positions where your choice is below 20%. Then, other players who feel the same, will drive your 20% placement up to 50% or better. At this point, you've made 150% on your position. If the event is not going to be settled for some time, cash out your position and go shopping again.
C. Buy low – sell high! 10% sales fine is ok.
Safe cash in gains beat the settlement risc, if you are not shure and have gained much value. Waiting for a settlement includes always a risc of losing. Very nice to earn additional money. Try to keep the options you believe in.
D. You may consider to cash out your position if it reaches 90% or more, and still has time before settlement. You can put your money back to work. I cashed out my bets on S&P weekly at 97% Tuesday after close because there were 3 days left and 97% was way too high.
E. Forget fandom – wanting your team to win is not profitable – try to bet against eg Chelsea fans. Most starting odds are professional opinion. If fans put the team 10% higher - buy against. I lost much on “Germany†and made a lot against.
Bet on all unlikely options in sports markets after the fans have bet.
My method I only use statistics (NHL) or watch the leaderboards (Golf)
Knowledge is no bonus if you can read the stats.
F. Super Users & Cat Admins are completely open - study their bets to learn something about the markets or find interesting markets. If you want to profit than do their strategy first – The early bird catches the worm. Don´t follow them stupidly because they mostly take all the interesting volume out of a market.
Normal players have an option to hide all or parts of their bets – be careful here – false leads.
G. Statistics game or professional odds
Sports statistics or betting odds (www.oddchecker.com) can help you bet.
Intrade is good for politics. I use Wikipedia for Awards and many times bet on last years winner (Emmy).
H. Buying all options cheap – the progressive model disadvantages this strategy (HD was more friendly)
I. Everyone but the favorite – KtN progressive model punishes this strategy – tried with betting against Cavendish at numerous Tour stages
J. “Clever†strategy or "pre-bet odds manipulation tactics" will be rendered useless soon by rule changes – you can follow the discussion in this forum
Have a nice weekend.
No order – not all work good with the current market model
A. Insurance or hedging your bets – I often buy very cheap options below 3% just to
win in every case/limit my loses.
B. aggressive strategy / betting Outsiders
Do not place your bets when your predictions are at or above 50%. While you may be sure of the outcome, again, your return is not agressive. Take a position when the percentage of your choice is below 40% (preferably less) in order to get a better return. In truth, if you want to grow rapidly, you need to shop around a bit, a take positions where your choice is below 20%. Then, other players who feel the same, will drive your 20% placement up to 50% or better. At this point, you've made 150% on your position. If the event is not going to be settled for some time, cash out your position and go shopping again.
C. Buy low – sell high! 10% sales fine is ok.
Safe cash in gains beat the settlement risc, if you are not shure and have gained much value. Waiting for a settlement includes always a risc of losing. Very nice to earn additional money. Try to keep the options you believe in.
D. You may consider to cash out your position if it reaches 90% or more, and still has time before settlement. You can put your money back to work. I cashed out my bets on S&P weekly at 97% Tuesday after close because there were 3 days left and 97% was way too high.
E. Forget fandom – wanting your team to win is not profitable – try to bet against eg Chelsea fans. Most starting odds are professional opinion. If fans put the team 10% higher - buy against. I lost much on “Germany†and made a lot against.
Bet on all unlikely options in sports markets after the fans have bet.
My method I only use statistics (NHL) or watch the leaderboards (Golf)
Knowledge is no bonus if you can read the stats.
F. Super Users & Cat Admins are completely open - study their bets to learn something about the markets or find interesting markets. If you want to profit than do their strategy first – The early bird catches the worm. Don´t follow them stupidly because they mostly take all the interesting volume out of a market.
Normal players have an option to hide all or parts of their bets – be careful here – false leads.
G. Statistics game or professional odds
Sports statistics or betting odds (www.oddchecker.com) can help you bet.
Intrade is good for politics. I use Wikipedia for Awards and many times bet on last years winner (Emmy).
H. Buying all options cheap – the progressive model disadvantages this strategy (HD was more friendly)
I. Everyone but the favorite – KtN progressive model punishes this strategy – tried with betting against Cavendish at numerous Tour stages
J. “Clever†strategy or "pre-bet odds manipulation tactics" will be rendered useless soon by rule changes – you can follow the discussion in this forum
Have a nice weekend.
kruijs (1)
hi all!
I'd like to create a static page from the contents here. could someone put this together into a single text (no formatting required) and e mail this to info at knewthenew com?
I'd like to create a static page from the contents here. could someone put this together into a single text (no formatting required) and e mail this to info at knewthenew com?
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