Question Details

American presidential election: How close will the result be?

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American presidential election: How close will the result be?

Asked by: Super UserStephen Tilley in Politics » United States
Settled on 11/10/2012 09:45 Settled by Super UserStephen Tilley
Winning option:2% or more but less than 4% Settling on the latest popular vote figures:
Obama 61,681,462 Romney 58,488,199 giving:
Obama 51.33% Romney 48.67% Difference 2.66%

The figures will be revised but not by enough to cross a boundary in this question.

Predictions
Less than 2%
21.9% →
2% or more but less than 4%
32.4% →
4% or more but less than 6%
33.1% →
6% or more but less than 8%
6.2% →
8% or more but less than 10%
3.1% →
10% or more
3.3% →

Background

How close will the result of the American presidential election be?

Note 1: No need to predict the winner - just the difference in percentage points between the winner and second place.
Note 2: This will be settled on official results and will disregard all votes for minor candidates, i.e. the number of votes will be those of the Democrats and Republicans combined.

Find similar: 2012, presidential election, barack obama, mitt romney

Comments

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(1)   Super UserStephen Tilley

For the avoidance of doubt - this will be settled on the popular vote.

(1)   Super Usercharlesf

Electoral votes:

1800 Jefferson 73 - Burr 73
1876 Hayes 185 - Tilden 184
1916 Wilson 277 - Hughes 254
2000 Bush 271 - Gore 266
2004 Bush 286 - Kerry 251

Some are ancient history but 2 of the last 3 fall within the range of this question.

(2)   Super Usergotmick

@charlesf - I'm assuming and believe this would only work with the popular vote. Options for an electoral vote wouldn't be this tight, or would they?

   cici

@Bucky - another deep in for Obama. I'm looking for one of you to tell me why, and any reason I should vote for him. I don't care if it's good for the Country, good for me, or good for the fig crop. a reason for me to vote for him.

   Super Usercharlesf

Is this refering to the electoral vote or the popular vote?

(1)   Super UserBuckeyeTom

I second Mick's compliment. In addition I see Obama's Democratic party blowing Romney and the Republicans away. At least I hope so.

(3)   Super Usergotmick

Great market Stephen!

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