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What will be the result of the Scottish Independence Referendum?

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What will be the result of the Scottish Independence Referendum?

Asked by: Super Userkruijs in Politics » Western Europe
Settled on 09/19/2014 05:29 Settled by Super UserStephen Tilley
Winning option:majority against independence http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/live

Final figures will be around 55/45 against. No other result now possible.

Predictions

majority in favor of independence
majority against independence
no referendum held before the end of 2014, inconclusive, non-admitted, etc
no referendum held before the end of 2014, inconclusive, non-admitted, etc

Background

After more than eight months of intense negotiations, the Scottish first minister and the UK prime minister signed a detailed 30-clause agreement in Edinburgh to stage a referendum before the end of 2014 asking a simple yes or no question on whether Scotland should become independent.

The deal, dubbed the Edinburgh agreement by Salmond, states that both governments "look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome". The leaders said they would respect and uphold the result.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/oct/15/alex-salmond-scotland-referendum-deal

Find similar: scotland, referendum, independence

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   Super UserStephen Tilley

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/latest-scottish-referendum-poll-yes-lead/

With 12 days to go until the Scottish independence referendum, the ‘Yes’ campaign has taken a 2 point lead - which means a statistical dead heat at this late stage

   Super Userkruijs

The campaign for Scottish independence has "virtually no chance" of victory, according to Nate Silver, the polling expert who accurately called the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections.

In an interview with the Scotsman, Silver, who correctly predicted the results of all 50 states in 2012, said the Scottish data was "pretty definitive". "There's virtually no chance that the 'yes' side will win," he said. "If you look at the polls, it's pretty definitive really where the no side is at 60-55% and the yes side is about 40 or so."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/13/nate-silver-scottish-independence-referendum

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