Many people like to think they can predict the future, but only futurists (and psychics) get paid to do it.

And futurist Lars Thomsen thinks that electric cars are such a disruptive technology that they will make gasoline cars obsolete--starting in 2016, or much earlier than most other analysts suggest.

But Thomsen suggests that electric cars are a sufficiently disruptive technology that they will lead to quick behavior changes by consumers in the market for automobiles.

Tesla may well be the tipping point, he says, showing that a radically new model is not only possible, but something that buyers will eagerly embrace.

Battery prices will fall, he says, and public charging infrastructure will continue to be installed.

"As early as 2016," the futurist predicts, demand for vehicles powered by internal-combustion engines "will decline massively"--with even demand for hybrid cars collapsing by 2018.

In that scenario, he notes, government rules to boost gas mileage and reduce carbon emissions will become meaningless as battery-powered zero-emission vehicles proliferate.

What do you think? Is Thomsen far too optimistic, or could this radical scenario actually take place?

http://autos.yahoo.com/news/electric-cars-disruptive-gas-cars-obsolete-2016-says-131113863.html