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Ivory Coast crisis: Laurent Gbagbo or Alassane Ouattara?

Ivory Coast crisis: Laurent Gbagbo or Alassane Ouattara?

Asked by: growthy in Politics » Africa
Settled on 04/11/2011 17:35 Settled by Super Userkruijs
Winning option:assane Ouattara Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo arrested

The UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, said that Gbagbo's arrest marked the "end of a chapter that should never have been". The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said it "sends a strong signal to dictators and tyrants throughout the region and around the world".

Youssoufou Bamba, Ouattara's ambassador to the UN, said: "The nightmare is over for the people of Ivory Coast."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/11/ivory-coast-former-leader-arrested

Predictions

Background

The political crisis after the presidential run-off last month in Cote d'Ivoire is showing few signs of easing, as both candidates declared they had won and started to form their own new governments. Meanwhile, there were smoke and protests on the streets here.

Cote d'Ivoire's Constitutional Council has declared incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo the winner of the presidential run-off, while the country's Election Commission had said earlier that former prime minister and presidential candidate Alasssane Ouattara had won.

The Election Commission said that Ouattara had won by garnering 54.1 percent of the vote against his rival Gbagbo, who got 45.9 percent.

Ouattara now is in a tug of war with Gbagbo for the presidency. Ouattara on Sunday declared the formation of a new government to gain more clout in the fierce contest.

However, the country's Constitutional Council annulled the result on Friday, citing Ouattara camp's voting fraud in the northern regions. It declared Gbagbo won the presidency by gaining 51.45 percent of the vote.

UN, US, France and the European Union have refused to recognize Gbagbo's proclaimed victory.

On Saturday, Ouattara was sworn in as the country's new president. Guillaume Soro presented his resignation to Gbagbo to side with Ouattara.

Gbagbo declared his presidency on the same day. He named president of Abidjan's Cocody university Gilbert Ake as his prime minister.

Analysts believed that the two rivaling camps have their own resprective strengths and weaknesses and the situation in the West African country currently is still under control, which indicates there is a willingness for reconciliation.

However, they added, anything could happen in the fragile standoff, and currently it is hard to say whether the crisis can be resolved through peaceful diaglogue.

STALEMATE

On Nov. 28, Cote d'Ivoire held its presidential run-off, and voters went peacefully to polling stations to choose their new president. Yet, while the voting was still underway, the two presidential candidates began to accuse each other of fraud in the voting process, each backed by the Election Commission or the Consitutional Council.

The result was that both candidates declared they had won, and both were sworn in on Saturday as the country's new president. Then, supporters of both camps went onto the streets to protest and burn tires to express their dissatisfaction with each other.

On Sunday, Ouattara declared that they had formed a new government for the country under the incumbent Prime Minister Soro. Soro very soon announced the list of his cabinet members.

Two days later, Gbagbo unveiled his government lineup, and the standoff came into being.

On Monday morning, heavy smoke from the buring tires on many streets could be seen here. Police went onto the main streets to dispel crowds and maintain order, and United Nations peacekeepers in the country also sent vehicles to keep watch over the key streets and parade in the city.

Many shops and restaurants in the city tightened their security and shortened or halted their business operation. Last weekend, some large supermarkets here saw a shortage of eggs, vegetable and fruit supplies and rises in prices.

Gbagbo and Ouattara are now involved in a tug of war for the country's presidency. Some analysts believed that each side has its own "weaknesses" and "trump cards."

On "weaknesses," Gbagbo has reasons to worry as the Consitutional Council annulled the "fraud" voting results in seven cities in the north of the country which apparently favored Ouattara.

For Ouattara, the time when the Independent Election Commission declared his victory exceeded the time limit stipulated by law. Ouattara even sumbitted a written oath to the Constitutional Council after he "took office," which indicates that he has to rely on the Council to become the lawful president.

As for "trump cards," Cote d'Ivoire's military swore their loyalty to Gbagbo, while Ouattara had more international supporters, including the United Nations, France and the United States.

Analysts said that neither Gbagbo nor Ouattara hoped that the situation would grow worse, and so far they have restrained themselves to allow international mediation and dialogue.

How will the political stalemate in Cote d'Ivoire be broken?

Comments

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   Super Usergotmick

I agree. This would only settle as other if none of the first three options happen before suspension. With the recent developments, it's looking pretty good for Ouattara now. I think this will settle sooner than the suspend date.

   hfl13

IMO by suspension or before the first three can happen and other wins if the situation is undecided. Battles for 2,5 month with many death will than definitely be civil war. But if one party wins or a third party controls Ivory Cost (coup) the first three options win.

   Super Userkruijs

About 450 people have been killed in the four months following November's disputed election, but the discovery of mass graves and the urban warfare now unfolding in Abidjan have raised fears of thousands more lives lost.

   Super Userkruijs

what makes a civil war?

The common scholarly definition has two main criteria. The first says that the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state or to force a major change in policy. The second says that at least 1,000 people must have been killed in total, with at least 100 from each side.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/world/middleeast/26war.html?_r=2&oref=slogin

   Super Userkruijs

Ivory Coast moves towards civil war as crisis over disputed election deepens

Government forces threaten to storm opposition base as William Hague pledges support for action to oust President Gbagbo

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/31/ivory-coast-brink-civil-war

   growthy

West African military commanders are preparing contingency plans to remove Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo by force if he fails to peacefully transfer power to Alassane Ouattara, Nigerian Defense Ministry spokesman Colonel Mohammed Yerimah said today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-01/west-african-nations-preparing-plan-to-oust-ivory-coast-gbagbo.html

   loneagle

Nothing can stop the man with the right mental attitude from achieving his goal, nothing can help the man with the wrong attitude.

   growthy

Former Liberian Warlord Denies Ivorian President's Appeal for Help

Thomas Yah-Yah Nimely says he and his former MODEL fighters have no reason to get involved in Cote d'Ivoire's post-election impasse

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Butty-Ivory-Coast-Liberian-Warlord-Nimely-09december10-111581419.html

   growthy

Latest news update:
World calls for I.Coast president to quit
African Union chairman Bingu wa Mutharika on Wednesday demanded Gbagbo "respect the will of the people" and stand down. And US State Department spokesman Philip Crowley repeated a call for Gbagbo to quit for "a peaceful transition".
Link: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/world-calls-for-icoast-president-to-quit-20101209-18q2g.html

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