I planned this Market two weeks ago but waited for more news and a less dominant favorite (never happened).

The Ames Straw Poll is a very important step to the Iowa caucus and can end candidacies or promote them to serious contenders.
In 2008 Mitt Romney spend his fortune on the Ames Straw Poll & Iowa (not this time) and came in #1. 2nd was Mike Huckabee who used this surprise as a stepping stone to winning Iowa and finishing 2nd in the 2008 nomination.

Mitt Romney learned from his defeat in 2008 by adopting John Mc Cains strategy and he is downplaying Iowa because he focuses on New Hampshire where he leads clearly and If he should win Iowa too there is a possible streak of 3 wins (Nevada caucus safe) and that could mean the nomination.

Pawlenty was downplaying Ames and Iowa but without a strong showing in Iowa his campaign could be dead.

Rick Perry is not on the straw ballot but there is a chance and a campaign for write ins.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ames_Straw_Poll
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2012-republican-presidential-campaign-who-will-iowas-ames-straw-poll-make-break/2011/07/10/gIQAEWDk7H_story.html
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/17/iowa-gop-outlines-rules-for-ames-straw-poll/
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/23/six-gop-campaigns-land-spots-for-ames-straw-poll/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/rick-perry-left-off-ames-straw-poll-ballot_n_907801.html


I use intrade for starting odds: Be aware IMO the race is much closer and Paul, Pawlenty and Romney could win.