Question Details

Who will win the Ames Straw Poll on August 13th?

Who will win the Ames Straw Poll on August 13th?

Asked by: hfl13 in Politics » United States
Settled on 08/13/2011 23:10 Settled by bernardo
Winning option:chele Bachman 1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)
2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-straw-numbers-20110813,0,4205921.story

Predictions
Michele Bachman
53.4% →
Ron Paul
14.3% →
Tim Pawlenty
2.6% →
Mitt Romney
25.2% →
Rick Perry & Sarah Palin
1.1% →
Other
Other
3.3% →

Background

I planned this Market two weeks ago but waited for more news and a less dominant favorite (never happened).

The Ames Straw Poll is a very important step to the Iowa caucus and can end candidacies or promote them to serious contenders.
In 2008 Mitt Romney spend his fortune on the Ames Straw Poll & Iowa (not this time) and came in #1. 2nd was Mike Huckabee who used this surprise as a stepping stone to winning Iowa and finishing 2nd in the 2008 nomination.

Mitt Romney learned from his defeat in 2008 by adopting John Mc Cains strategy and he is downplaying Iowa because he focuses on New Hampshire where he leads clearly and If he should win Iowa too there is a possible streak of 3 wins (Nevada caucus safe) and that could mean the nomination.

Pawlenty was downplaying Ames and Iowa but without a strong showing in Iowa his campaign could be dead.

Rick Perry is not on the straw ballot but there is a chance and a campaign for write ins.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ames_Straw_Poll
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2012-republican-presidential-campaign-who-will-iowas-ames-straw-poll-make-break/2011/07/10/gIQAEWDk7H_story.html
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/17/iowa-gop-outlines-rules-for-ames-straw-poll/
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/23/six-gop-campaigns-land-spots-for-ames-straw-poll/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/rick-perry-left-off-ames-straw-poll-ballot_n_907801.html


I use intrade for starting odds: Be aware IMO the race is much closer and Paul, Pawlenty and Romney could win.





Find similar: GOP, primary, 2012, nominees

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   hfl13

Finished are: Pawlenty, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, McCotter, Palin
Write in Perry beats Frontrunner Romney (extemely bad result) - Romney should have done a little more 7th from 31,6%(2007) to 3,4%

1 Michele Bachmann 4,823 28.5%
2 Ron Paul 4,671 27.6%
3 Tim Pawlenty 2,293 13.6%
4 Rick Santorum 1,657 9.8%
5 Herman Cain 1,456 8.6%
6 Rick Perry (write-in) 718 4.3%
7 Mitt Romney 567 3.4%
8 Newt Gingrich 385 2.3%
9 Jon Huntsman 69 0.4%
10 Thaddeus McCotter 35 0.2%
— Scattering 162 1.0%

   hfl13

For Pawlenty, it's Ames or bust: http://www.politico.com/index.html

   Super Usercharlesf

@ken I didn't mean to interfere with your scientific study. I was just going through the new markets, found this one and made a few wagers. Didn't even see the comments until I noticed that someone else was buying at the same time I was. Hope you were able to complete your work on another market.

   kenneth1

hi charlesf, sorry i should have added please do not bet on this for the next 5 minutes... your
purchases messed up my calculations... It 's ok though.. i will try and work with another market, ken

   kenneth1

i am checking this out to see how market responds to bets...

   hfl13

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60838.html

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