12/09/2011 02:02bernardo

What will be the reported unemployment rate in Gaza for the first half of 2011?
http://www.unrwa.org/userfiles/20111207970.pdf

   12/09/2011 02:02bernardo

What will be the reported unemployment rate in Gaza for the first half of 2011?
This was settled a bit early and on the wrong sources (third quarter 2011 and not by the UN), but the outcome is right after all. "The resulting labour force increased by some 1.9 percent to an estimated 354,155 persons. Employment jumped by more than 47,000 jobs in first-half 2011, or 24.7 percent to an estimated 237,475. The broad unemployment rate declined to 32.9 percent from 45.2 percent in second-half 2010, as the number of unemployed fell 25.7 percent to an estimated 116,675.

   11/10/2011 16:16bernardo

Will Michele Bachmann appear in the 15th season of South Park?
So, after Natalie Portman got the spot as keeper of the wormhole in the thanksgiving episode, there's only one episode left for Michele.

   11/10/2011 14:34bernardo

Will there be more than 140 votes in favor of a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly?
"Our plan now is to take the battle to the UN General Assembly, where we are certain to score victory. This will allow us access to many important UN agencies and organizations, including the International Criminal Court." http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=244990

   11/09/2011 21:24bernardo

Will a pre-emptive strike against Iran, or Iranian nuclear facilities, be carried out during November?
I'm wondering whether a cyber attack on the nuclear facilities would count. The question doesn't say the attacker must be known.

   11/09/2011 15:11bernardo

Will the Yakuza succeed in winning waste removal or construction contracts in tsunami-hit areas of Japan?
I somehow agree with the void. Even though "no such news" is probably the case, it's hard to think of a way in which a mainstream news story would reveal a proven involvement through a contract and not just spread suspicions. It's the mafia for a reason..

   10/30/2011 22:06bernardo

Will the Yakuza succeed in winning waste removal or construction contracts in tsunami-hit areas of Japan?
"The mafioso have even stepped in to clear radioactive rubble near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a task many private firms have shied away from, according to the Guardian newspaper." http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/10/03/diapers-from-the-mafia/
I can't say where exactly she read this, but the online Guardian doesn't say anything more than that they tried to step in, not that they surely did.

   10/28/2011 13:28bernardo

Who will win the Venezuelan conservative's primary elections on 12 February 2012?
I allowed myself to edit the question's title so it includes the concerned country's name.

   09/25/2011 14:37bernardo

Who will be the next world leader to resign?
As usual, a lost election or any other regular end of term is not a resignation. A lost election after a lost vote of confidence is no resignation, but of course one could resign after a lost vote of confidence.

   09/08/2011 17:17bernardo

Paper Or Plastic? - Will any California city ban BOTH during 2011?
The editing is doing stuff I didn't ask for.. I just changed the publication date twice because it had no effect the first time.

   09/08/2011 08:21bernardo

Where will UARS land?
This is literally trash science and I like it (:

   09/02/2011 01:22bernardo

Will Happy Feet, the emperor penguin, reach the Southern Ocean?
Ah, http://www.nzemperor.com/ has added a grid overlay. Problem solved.

   08/31/2011 13:03bernardo

Will The Simpsons, user generated, "Best. Character. Ever." appear in the next Simpsons Movie?
Sorry, It's about a movie.. Nevermind the flag.

   08/30/2011 20:49bernardo

Will Happy Feet, the emperor penguin, reach the Southern Ocean?
btw: Maybe somebody who has a twitter account can advertise KtN among Happy Feet's followers on http://twitter.com/#!/NZEmperor

   08/30/2011 17:21bernardo

Will Happy Feet, the emperor penguin, reach the Southern Ocean?
Does anybody know how to get the geographical coordinates of these points in the Google Maps or Google Earth plugins? If there's no other solution maybe we should push Sirtrack to simply publish them along with the dates in these description bubbles...

   08/30/2011 14:18bernardo

Quick: Will Israeli forces kill protesters during the first 24h after UN Palestinian statehood vote?
"The army is establishing two virtual lines for each of the settlements that are near a Palestinian village. The first line, if crossed by Palestinian demonstrators, will be met with tear gas and other means for dispersing crowds.
The second line is a “red line,” and if this one is crossed, the soldiers will be allowed to open fire at the legs of the demonstrators, as is also standard practice if the northern border is crossed." http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-training-israeli-settlers-ahead-of-mass-disorder-expected-in-september-1.381421

This is establishing/protecting de facto borders which probably don't help to resolve any conflict.

   08/30/2011 12:52bernardo

Quick: How harmful will hurricane Irene be in New York State?
...windsurfing! That guy probably wanted to die.

   08/28/2011 17:40bernardo

English Premier League: who will be top after 3 games?
Haha, ManCity destroys Tottenham 5:1 and still ManU has the better goal difference in the end (after the 8:2 against Arsenal) :)

   08/28/2011 17:22bernardo

Will there be more than 140 votes in favor of a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September?
Since the Caribbean states didn't publicly agree on a position it still seems to be somehow close:
""We hope for the vote of more than 150 countries for recognition of the state of Palestine on the 1967 borders with its capital in east Jerusalem as a full member at the United Nations," negotiator Saeb Erekat told AFP." http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jjLDjiXqoPfgs2PF04jC6WRUWlfw?docId=CNG.af132ca0e3a0fd2cd947182992220075.181

"Quoting a senior foreign ministry source, the paper said that only five countries had told Israel they would vote against the Palestinian bid: the United States, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.
The ministry is expecting 130 to 140 of the 193 UN member countries to endorse Palestinian membership — a majority of more than two thirds." http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Israel+sees+huge+backing+Palestinians/5319354/story.html#ixzz1WLT1UACY

   08/24/2011 16:28bernardo

Will Russia support a UN Security Council resolution condemning violence in Syria?
"In June, Margelov hosted a meeting with the Syrian opposition and called for an end to "any and all forms of violence." Margelov then made it very clear ("Leaders come and go, politicians come and go, social systems come and go, but for Russia there remains a single reliable and trusted friend: the Syrian people”) that Moscow is willing to deal with any eventual in the Syrian conflict." http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/08/24/a_lesson_in_arabic_making_sense_of_russias_middle_east_policy_13287.html

"Russia has been a major arms supplier to Syria since the Soviet era and political cooperation with Damascus has often been far more valuable to Moscow than money. In 2005, Russia wrote off more than 70 percent of Syria's $13-billion debt, much of which was the result of Soviet-era arms deliveries. [...]
On Tuesday, the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution calling for an investigation into the crackdown on the opposition in Syria, where more than 2,200 people have been killed since the beginning of the unrest in mid-March, according to UN human rights chief Navi Pillay.
Russia, as well as China, Cuba and Ecuador, voted against the resolution. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the document was "politicized and one-sided" and failed to take into consideration Syrian efforts to "stabilize the situation."" http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20110824/166115725.html

   08/23/2011 17:13bernardo

Will Casey Anthony Have to Return to Florida to Serve Probation?
@ settlement request: There's a pending emergency appeal against the probation ruling. It's not sufficient that she's in Florida - she needs to start probation there, too.

   08/19/2011 13:06bernardo

Will the "Scrolls" trademark lawsuit dispute be settled by a Quake 3 duel?
kruijs, for a moment I thought it was you talking about Minecraft. But it made no sense. You don't seem to have the time to really enjoy it by spending 12 hours a day on digging dirt and building huge stuff with bricks :) I never played it myself, but it is kind of fun watching ;)

   08/19/2011 00:30bernardo

What will the mysterious orange goo in Alaska be identified as?
I love it! And I have a feeling that someone in the Auke Bay Labs who said the things were eggs lost a bet on this, too :)

"[...]the substance is consistent with spores from a fungi that cause rust, a disease that infects only plants causing a rust-like appearance on leaves and stems. Rust fungi reproduce to infect other plants by releasing spores which disperse often times great distances by wind and water. However, whether this spore belongs to one of the 7,800 known species of rust fungi has not yet been determined." http://www.fakr.noaa.gov/newsreleases/2011/orangesubstance081811.pdf

   08/17/2011 01:22bernardo

Will NASA successfully launch its new Mars rover "Curiosity" in November?
Erm, November! :)

   08/17/2011 01:21bernardo

Will NASA successfully launch its new Mars rover "Curiosity" in November?
Ah, shit, I just mixed up August and September and was wondering what the heck you were talking about :)

   08/16/2011 21:08bernardo

Will NASA successfully launch its new Mars rover "Curiosity" in November?
As far as I know the recent launches went through quite smoothly. Since NASA won't delay a launch without reason I consider the earlier days as much more likely than later ones. I think the most frequent reason for launch delays is bad weather and this is also not very likely to persist for five consecutive days. As long as they don't get behind schedule for some other reasons they should be able to do this in November. Why do yo think the dates are all equally likely?
As long as you have no serious objections I'd say feel free to bet against me :)

   08/16/2011 12:46bernardo

Climate Change: How bad will Holland's 2011 summer be?
Haha, now you disguise this weather question as climate science and put it in the environment category. I'm still advocating the scientific nature of the "weather markets", too :)

   08/16/2011 00:02bernardo

Will foreign military forces officially intervene in Syria before Assad is gone?
"[...] the Turkish "Hurriyet" newspaper reported that Turkey may consider cooperating with international powers in the event they decide to intervene militarily in Syria.
According to the report, the Turkish foreign minister made it clear to Assad that in the event that Syrian forces continue to act aggressively against demonstrators Syria will no longer be able to rely on friendship from Turkey." http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/turkey-fm-issues-final-words-calling-on-syria-to-halt-violent-crackdowns-1.378777

   08/15/2011 23:33bernardo

What name will the first Hurricane category 2 and above have of the 2011 season?
It's asking for the first one to reach cat. "2 and above". Self-explanatory, isn't it?

   08/15/2011 22:46bernardo

What name will the first Hurricane category 3 and above have of the 2011 season?
"By Sunday, Franklin had merged with a cold front and was no more." http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Franklin.html

"by Wednesday morning, August 16, Gert will be moving over cooler waters which will help sap her strength." http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Gert.html

   08/15/2011 22:39bernardo

Which of these former leaders will die first?
Ok, let's continue with some actual background:

Kohl: in a wheelchair after suffering a craniocerebral injury in '08
"But Kohl himself, wheelchair-bound and in unmistakably frail health, preferred to focus on the present. Despite an unsteady voice, his message was clear: "We have reached the future" for which we spent years fighting. "We want to say 'yes' to this life." http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,763094,00.html

Thatcher: several small strokes in '02, progressing dementia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Thatcher#Since_2003

Bush: Parkinsonsism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush#Post-Presidency

Castro: maybe Parkinsonism, intestinal bleeding in '06, but his health reportdely improved.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro#Speculation_on_illness_1998.E2.80.932005

   08/15/2011 21:57bernardo

Will President Barack Obama beat them all on twitter?
Probably the best way to follow twitter statistics: http://twittercounter.com/

   08/14/2011 19:53bernardo

Which of these former leaders will die first?
I lost my appendix like 4.5 years ago on christmas eve and I'm only 24, but my belly never hurt since then! Currently carrying no serious diseases that I know of, though. Mental ones left aside.

   08/14/2011 16:47bernardo

Which of these former leaders will die first?
I wonder whether someone around here thinks of this kind of market as offensive, since in the course of this discussion Hubdub banned it from what I thought was a "bad for business" point of view.

My "excuse" for my morbid fascination for these relies on the "satire/mockery" argument. The imaginative world could look like this:
You are an executive employee at the "Eternal Bank of the Course of Nature" (or sth. similar), which is of course an investment bank. Therefore you buy long-term assets of Maggy Thatcher and her "aging to death" business model but at the same time invest in high-risk bets on Hissene Habre being extradited to Chad and tortured to death, which you hastily sell after it becomes clear that Belgium bought the majority of his future fate. Instead you jump on shares of Noriega, who is outsourced to house arrest in Panama and therefore has an increased likelihood of being assasinated, which for insurance reasons you put in a package with shares of George Bush's possible cancer. Then the long term rating of Cancer Inc. gets downgraded due to new treatment options etc. etc.

   08/12/2011 12:52bernardo

How many of THESE people will be selected to be on the super Debt Committee to consider handling the US debt issues?
Hey, I think you unjustly cut off my predictions :P ET is GMT -4 h.

   08/10/2011 23:16bernardo

What will the mysterious orange goo in Alaska be identified as?
"It seems like one way to settle the other question – "Can you eat it?" – would be to dollop the eggs on a Saltine cracker and go to town. After all, it's not every day you get free caviar coming in with the tide. But I guess NOAA's scientists didn't get as far as they have by eating stuff off the ground. Sad." http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/2011/08/mystery-of-kivalina-alaska-s-orange-goo-solved--12280.html

   08/10/2011 16:33bernardo

How many of THESE people will be selected to be on the super Debt Committee to consider handling the US debt issues?
Well, am I the grinch again? If the initial odds were impossible the market is invalid and must be voided, no?
And what was "more than one of the above" meant to be anyway? One of them is simultaneously a member and not a member?

   08/10/2011 12:33bernardo

Which anti-riot weapon will be used by UK police during the current violent protests first?
Oh how conservatives flourish when they have the opportunity to shout out their law and order fantasies: "Picture by picture, these criminals are being identified, arrested and we will not let any phoney concerns about human rights get in the way of the publication of these pictures and arrest of these individuals." D. Cameron

   08/09/2011 19:19bernardo

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Updated Hurricane Season Outlook of 3-5 major (cat 3+) Hurricanes be correct?
The outlooks in a picture: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure1.gif

   08/09/2011 19:16bernardo

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Updated Hurricane Season Outlook of 3-5 major (cat 3+) Hurricanes be correct?
@kruijs: I do, if the approach to it is scientific, which I think applies to the NOAA. For example they try to accentuate what they can not do in the introduction to the press release: "This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular region." Don't discriminate sciences in their early stages :P It does no good to them if people think of them as an art.

And, fine, I'll be the supporter of the 70% probability :)

   08/07/2011 18:02bernardo

What will be S&P next US credit rating?
"Standard & Poor's managing director John Chambers said on Sunday there is a one in three chance of a further U.S. credit rating downgrade over the next six months to two years." http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-crisis-usa-chambers-idUSTRE7761C420110807

   08/07/2011 17:42bernardo

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Updated Hurricane Season Outlook of 3-5 major (cat 3+) Hurricanes be correct?
The background is a bit hard to read because quoted and self-written parts aren't distinguished. I don't understand why you chose even odds although the (scientific) publication you cite estimates a 70% chance. I feel bad for possibly profiting of this gap.
Speaking of science: I don't see any reason why "Weather" shouldn't be in the "Science" category.

   08/07/2011 16:33bernardo

How will Charlie Harper be killed off?
Mh, subway accident doesn't really sound creative.

   08/04/2011 18:42bernardo

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?
It feels like I'm the only one holding stakes of S&P by now. They should come out of the closet every moment..

   08/04/2011 17:36bernardo

Will Russia support a UN Security Council resolution condemning violence in Syria?
"Syria's opposition has accused the international community of complicity in crimes against humanity after the UN Security Council failed to agree a resolution condemning the violent repression of protests against President Bashar al-Assad." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8682230/Syrian-opposition-accuses-UN-of-moment-of-shame-over-resolution.html

   08/03/2011 18:52bernardo

Will the UN declare a famine in at least two more regions of Somalia by the end of September?
The new one: Will the UN have declared a famine in eight regions of Somalia by the end of September?

   08/03/2011 15:23bernardo

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?
Moody's dropped out of the race: "Tuesday, Moody's reaffirmed its triple-A rating on the U.S., saying the increased debt limit has "virtually eliminated the risk" of a default. It gave the U.S. a negative outlook, however, warning that it could downgrade the U.S. for the first time if fiscal discipline slackens or the economy weakens, among other developments." http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2011-08-02-credit-rating_n.htm

   08/02/2011 11:10bernardo

Will Michele Bachmann appear in the 15th season of South Park?
I liked it, too. Google image search spit it out on a simple "michelle bachmann south park" query (I found out she is actually spelled with just one 'l' afterwards)

   08/01/2011 01:08bernardo

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?
'Standard & Poor’s indicated last week that anything less than $4 trillion in cuts would jeopardize the U.S.’s AAA rating.
“A grand bargain of that nature would signal the seriousness of policy makers to address the fiscal situation in the U.S.,” John Chambers, chairman of S&P’s sovereign rating committee, said in a video interview distributed by the New York-based ratings firm on July 28.
Moody’s Investors Service reiterated on July 29 that the U.S. should be able to keep its Aaa rating as long as the Treasury agrees to raise the debt ceiling.' http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-31/debt-downgrade-amounts-to-few-basis-points-in-ratings-history.html

   08/01/2011 00:30bernardo

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
Missed the train? I already knew it like a week ago! ;)

   07/31/2011 15:30bernardo

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
@new Q: My thought exactly. Maybe even two or three of them ;) 1: Will he make it? 2: When? 3: Where will he end up being eaten or founding a family?

   07/31/2011 15:12bernardo

Will the two Americans detained in Iran for two years for illegally entering the country be sentenced to an additional prison term?
"The lawyer for two Americans jailed in Iran on charges of espionage said Sunday the court will announce its verdict within a week, dashing hopes for their immediate release after a final hearing in the case." http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g_N-o068SywAKH6BUrbymoNQ1eoA?docId=2087ec9c29da4b97ad2ec9dd154576a1

   07/30/2011 12:17bernardo

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
A nice overview of the whole situation in one picture: http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/blog-html/leftvright_world.html

   07/29/2011 12:59bernardo

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
"Citigroup said the most likely outcome (60pc chance) of the Washington drama is a rise in the debt ceiling with a small fiscal package below $2 trillion that makes "no material difference" to the US debt trajectory and fails to satisfy rating agencies. This will lead to a downgrade from AAA to AA "initially"." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8669352/Global-slump-warnings-if-US-triggers-insane-default.html
...but this was before yesterday's vote

   07/28/2011 19:16bernardo

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?
I found a paper on this: "This paper has found that Standard and Poor’s tends to be the most cautious of the Rating
Agencies, with the fastest downgrades of corporate bonds, and average timing for upgrades." http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Macdonald.pdf

   07/28/2011 17:01bernardo

What will be the death toll of Syria's military crackdown when Assad leaves office?
Now there's a list the mentioned organisations rely on. 1665 dead civilians by July 15: http://www.syrianmartyr.com/sites/default/files/martyrslistcorrected2_2.pdf

   07/28/2011 11:26bernardo

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
I understood "no new news" as "stays at the zoo". Now there is news and in a timeline it could be called "new", but in fact the penguin will still stay at the zoo for a couple of weeks before being released. "It was not something that would be rushed and Happy Feet is expected to stay at the zoo until mid-late August." http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/5354788/Return-trip-beckons-for-heavier-Happy-Feet

   07/26/2011 18:54bernardo

Will Amanda Knox's Murder Conviction Be Overturned?
"The three days of DNA hearings, tomorrow, 30 July and 1 August, will be followed in September by final arguments, with the appeal verdict now expected around 25 September." http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/24/amanda-knox-dna-appeal-threat

   07/26/2011 14:09bernardo

Will North Korea reopen its universities by May 2012?
"North Korea has told university students to put their studies on hold for a year to join efforts to revitalise its broken economy ahead of its heralded emergence next year as a "great and prosperous nation", a top diplomat and media reports said.
The British ambassador to North Korea, Peter Hughes, said while there had been no official announcement from Pyongyang, students in the capital had been mobilised to work at nearby construction sites until April 2012." http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/07/01/idINIndia-58030320110701

   07/21/2011 09:33bernardo

Quick: Who will appear for the British Parliament committee investigating the News of the World scandal?
"Media baron Rupert Murdoch, his son James Murdoch and former News International CEO Rebekah Brooks testified Tuesday in front of a parliamentary hearing in London on phone hacking." http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/07/19/phone.hacking.scene/

   07/20/2011 10:23bernardo

Will a second autopsy of Salvador Allende's exhumed skeleton prove that he killed himself?
The feeling remains that this was merely a staged political show, but the official result has to count for settlement.

"But for Dr. Luis Ravanal, a forensic doctor who concluded in 2008 that the gunshots were most likely fired by two different weapons, the latest autopsy “did not reveal anything different than was already known.”
He contended that the forensic team had failed to “resolve fundamental doubts” by not having recovered a bone fragment in the back of the skull that had formed what appeared in the original autopsy report to be a second exit wound, he said. Dr. Ravanal also said the latest autopsy had confirmed his fears that a 1990 exhumation had been botched and produced “postmortem fractures” in Mr. Allende’s remains, which he said made it difficult to come to a definitive conclusion about his death." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/world/americas/20allende.html

   07/19/2011 11:19bernardo

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
ken, I feel like I stepped on your toes at some point but don't really know how that happened. An option like "other" which covers unexpected events or "no news at all" can help, but you introduced a variation where you could or did not explain what the difference is between "No" and "not by suspend date". It's just not true that you tried to explain this. And while we had to sort this out, I suspended the market so that nobody else gets in unnecessary trouble.
Just in case you feel differently: This is a non-commercial site where nobody should follow a personal agenda and everyone should be treated equally in discussions. But this only works if you take part and don't instantly act like someone emptied a bucket full of crap on your head after you were being criticised.

As for this market: It works just fine. I have been following the story over the weeks as it attracted enough media attention (at least in the kiwi-press) and the remaining question just seems to be if he is released before the suspend date or not. Example:
"Happy Feet is getting stronger and healthier by the day, gaining more weight thanks to a mighty appetite for salmon. [...]
Ms Baker said it was not known when the emperor penguin would be released into the Southern Ocean.
"It really depends on how long it takes for him to gain more weight and become healthier and fit enough to be released into the ocean." " http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10737634

   07/14/2011 13:26bernardo

Will the US Congress give the President powers so he can
raise the debt ceiling for some period of time?
Mh, the question is how this "other" outcome could look like. The conditions are that the president can decide without consent of congress or someone else. A "hybrid" where it's not quite clear if he does have the powers or not seems impossible. If he doesn't have any such power by the suspend date it's clearly "No" and nothing else, right?

   07/13/2011 17:18bernardo

Will any other European Union countries ban marmite this year?
cici, where does that 120% tax story come from? If this were true, no cars would be sold in Denmark at all. As for the current Danish government: They don't seem to like foreigners very much and aren't quite on the front line of defending civil liberties. Banning a product which poses no threat to anyone's health is just one example.

   07/13/2011 14:27bernardo

German general election 2013: Who will be the chancellor candidate for the Green Party?
"German Green Party co-leader Juergen Trittin is traveling to New York and Washington next week to meet with Obama administration officials as he burnishes his profile ahead of a possible run for the Chancellery in 2013. [...]
Trittin's visit underscores the Green surge in the past 18 months as the former environmental protest party has capitalized on Chancellor Angela Merkel's weakness. After party in-fighting and flip-flops on Greece and nuclear power, Merkel's coalition trails the Greens and Social Democrats in polls by as many as 12 percentage points." http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/07/06/bloomberg1376-LNV0RM07SXKX01-30EHA9VT885PT66G8KLC44DPOV.DTL

   07/12/2011 17:44bernardo

Will the Obama administration order a criminal investigation into alleged torture sanctioned by the Bush administration?
Out of 101 cases in preliminary investigation, only two have been turned into a full criminal investigation recently. But this is most likely only about low level CIA agents etc. http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/07/01/torture/index.html

   07/10/2011 16:58bernardo

What will be the death toll of Syria's military crackdown when Assad leaves office?
Well, I meant the number of civilians killed. But It seems not 100% clear, I agree. The assumption was that it would be impossible for activists to obtain any number of casualties on the sides of security forces which they would trust and/or publish. Your cited number probably stems from the BBC "Rights groups estimate that more than 1,750 people, including 350 security personnel, have been killed" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14096981), which on June 17, when I created the question, reported "Syrian rights groups put the overall death toll in Syria at 1,297 civilians and 340 security force members."(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13802770). All together this means that the 1400 in all likelihood refers to civilian deaths and either this market must be voided due to ambiguous settlement details or it settles on civilian deaths like I thought it would.

   07/09/2011 01:02bernardo

What is the European Space Agency's next big mission?
The settlement went completely wrong, but I think this question can easily be restarted, because the decision has "just" been postponed.
"All three L1 mission candidates have been proposed to ESA, and have been studied, as cooperative enterprises with international partners, with NASA in a key role in all three. As a consequence, decisions on the future of these missions cannot be taken in isolation from the prospective partners.
Recently, the US National Research Council (NRC) has released 'decadal' surveys for both astronomy and planetary science. While both surveys recommended continued cooperation with ESA, and ranked highly all three L1 mission concepts, none of them were ranked as top priority. The US budget outlook also became known in February 2011, and in ESA's recent discussions with NASA it became clear that it is quite unlikely that any of the L-class mission candidates can be implemented as a joint Europe-US mission in the planned timeframe of the early 2020's. [...]
ESA will request the Space Science Advisory Committee to review and assess the science case of each of the three new mission concepts resulting from this activity, prior to a recommendation on the new mission concepts being proposed to the Science Programme Committee in February 2012." http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=48661

   07/08/2011 13:16bernardo

What will be the death toll of Syria's military crackdown when Assad leaves office?
It still doesn't look like it's going to last very long: "Tens of thousands of Syrians demanding the downfall of the nation's autocratic regime poured into the streets of the central city of Hama on Friday in a powerful rebuttal to both President Bashar Assad's much-doubted entreaties to dialogue and his use of extreme force to suppress a popular revolt against his rule. [...]
Bracing bullets and tear gas from security forces and pro-regime gunmen, tens of thousands of Syrians also took to the streets of cities and towns, including the capital, Damascus, and the second largest city, Aleppo, after prayers Friday, many voicing their rejection of a "national dialogue" conference planned for Sunday." http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fgw-syria-protests-20110709,0,3689753.story

   07/07/2011 17:30bernardo

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
I didn't say I'm on someones side here. Let the coins fall where they may and may the bigger animal have its feast ;)

   07/06/2011 17:03bernardo

What will be the death toll of Syria's military crackdown when Assad leaves office?
This is a question that has its settlement details more or less in the title: It is intended to settle either when Assad leaves office and/or when there was no escalation of conflict in a reasonably long time - probably when most of the media describes it as a finished process. This would indeed be a pretty tough decision to say exactly when the crackdown is over, but I admittedly assumed this would not happen until Assad resigns. But as long as there is no week without reported violence by suspension, this market's life should be prolonged.

   07/06/2011 12:25bernardo

Will the Dutch government set up a compensation fund for families of victims in the Bosnian War?
footage of how general Mladic and the Bosnian-Serb army fooled the UN soldiers:

   07/06/2011 11:18bernardo

Casey Anthony: When will the Jury return with a result?
Ok, in addition to my flag: Since this market's outcome was destined to be a question of hours, it's not avoidable to figure out the exact time of day for settlement.

   07/05/2011 19:40bernardo

Dragonboat racing: Prince William vs. Kate, who will win?
good boy!

   06/30/2011 16:07bernardo

Arab Spring 2011: Which will be the next country leader to resign or be dismissed?
Yemen is not included, so yes: This would count as Syria.

   06/30/2011 12:19bernardo

Will higher-than-normal radiation levels be recorded at the Los Alamos National Lab (Santa Fe), during the current wildfires?
Nice tactics: "Firefighters working against the wildfire that surrounds the nuclear lab in Los Alamos, N.M., have set part of the perimeter of the lab ablaze in hopes of starving the wildfire of fuel in the event it heads back toward the stash of radioactive material stored inside the lab." http://abcnews.go.com/US/los-alamos-fire-perimeter-nuclear-lab-set-ablaze/story?id=13964006

   06/29/2011 17:28bernardo

From which party will be UK's MP with the most sex-appeal at the end of July?
Well, I could have saved the flag on "Labour Co-op" ... I just didn't know there isn't any MP who is a member of the Co-operative party only.

   06/29/2011 17:16bernardo

From which party will be Germany's Member of Bundestag with the most sex-appeal at the end of July?
It seems funny at first, but it gets pretty disgusting as soon as you actually start playing.

   06/29/2011 11:05bernardo

Will the European Union stop financing the world's largest commodities trader Glencore's mining projects in Africa?
Another point of view: "At least five investment banks launched research coverage of Glencore International PLC (GLEN.LN) Wednesday with buy recommendations, noting that the company's solid management and growth pipeline would be a key driver for earnings growth over the next 12 months despite the weak share price performance since its initial public offering. [...]
Citigroup, which has a buy and medium-risk rating and 570p target price on the stock, said: "Glencore's appeal, and its differentiation from the other major mining houses, lies in its ability to capture value along the commodity supply chain." Moreover, it noted that Glencore has one of the most opportunistic and value-focused management teams in the resources sector, led by billionaire chief executive officer Ivan Glasenberg.
"This is likely to result in the company participating in the commodity up-cycle, via the industrial assets, while maintaining a defensive cushion through the marketing business," it added. " http://www.marketwatch.com/story/glencore-ipo-banks-start-coverage-with-buy-rating-2011-06-29

   06/29/2011 10:23bernardo

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
It's probably going to end up as shark food somewhere: " “Happy” should start preparing for a long swim after an advisory group convened by the Department of Conservation (DOC) said the bird should be released into the Southern Ocean, southeast of New Zealand.
The penguin will stay at Wellington Zoo until it is deemed well enough to have a reasonable chance of survival.
The Antarctic Treaty, signed by 46 nations and enshrined in New Zealand law, stipulates that no living bird is allowed to be taken into Antarctica.
To do so would breach the treaty's protocols on environmental protection because of the risk of disease" http://www.theaustralian.com.au/travel/news/lost-penguin-happy-feet-told-to-swim-home/story-e6frg8ro-1226084251744

   06/25/2011 17:47bernardo

Will Amenhotep III's beard be found?
I tried to figure out if they found this particular beard for about an hour now and I think it's going to be tough to settle this at some point. There are several statues of him in this area which makes it difficult to sort out which beard belongs to which statue.
This site could be helpful: http://heritage-key.com

   06/24/2011 15:23bernardo

How long will it take before Sudan and South Sudan start a war?
It looks like a war is being avoided:
"The U.N. Security Council will take up a draft resolution that would establish an interim peacekeeping force for the disputed border region of Abyei, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told reporters Thursday. The draft resolution calls for the deployment of 4,200 Ethiopian National Defense Force peacekeepers to the region. [...] The Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement signed an agreement Monday that allows U.N. peacekeepers in Abyei. The two sides agreed in principle on the need for a third party to monitor the ill-defined border between north and south before the scheduled July 9 independence for the south." http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/06/23/un.sudan/

   06/23/2011 15:45bernardo

The Knew The News Mug Contest: How many players will reach a 40+ market creation score during June?
I'm wondering why I seem to be leaping forward in 10 points steps, when the calculation is 1 point per 10 distinct predictors and 1 per rating score. Is it 5 points for epic? And how many ratings does it take until the rating is shown in the overviews of the markets?
I suppose you get a maximum of 5 points for the rating score, right?

   06/22/2011 15:20bernardo

Will Anthony Weiner resign over his "sexting" scandal?
Alright, I simply forgot that the time next to the transactions is my CET time..

   06/22/2011 14:37bernardo

What will be the announced number of US soldiers to be withdrawn from Afghanistan starting in July?
.......Thinking about it, I most likely gave my 40% to the 5000-8000 option, but nevermind.

   06/22/2011 14:18bernardo

What will be the announced number of US soldiers to be withdrawn from Afghanistan starting in July?
Ok, today some are saying around 10.000 this year, which would make my initial odds for this of (I think) 40% look pretty good! (It actually would be a nice feature to see the initial odds in the market's History, the movement graph reacts too fast on first-hour-predictions.)

   06/22/2011 14:03bernardo

What will be the announced number of US soldiers to be withdrawn from Afghanistan starting in July?
As you can see in the history, I was able to amend the date of suspension after news was out that he would speak today - no magic involved. Thanks for the props anyway. Still I'm a little excited whether he will abide by my rule of the "by the end of the year" number. All the media was juggling with numbers but never really connected to a certain timespan; those amateurs!

   06/20/2011 00:44bernardo

Will Anthony Weiner resign over his "sexting" scandal?
Well, no hard feelings on my side, but as charlesf's predictions are public, it's obvious that no voiding of transactions done on June 16 took place. Is that technically impossible? If yes, then this is a major issue with the gameplay here.

   06/18/2011 16:48bernardo

Will Amanda Knox's Murder Conviction Be Overturned?
I hope this doesn't settle tomorrow - it's about to get more interesting. It says "overturned by suspension", but this was in expectation of a conclusion in May.

   06/16/2011 14:55bernardo

International Criminal Court: Which State Party to the Rome Statute will Sudan's president al-Bashir visit next?
He is travelling again, but this time to China, which hasn't signed up to the club..
>Sophie Richardson, Asia advocacy director of Human Rights Watch, said: "The Chinese government loves to claim it is a friend of the African people. If that is the case they have no business welcoming someone who has done tremendous harm to precisely those people.
"The fact that at a time when some of the atrocities in Sudan were at their peak, it was not only the principal supplier of arms but the principal purchaser of Sudanese oil means it has questions to answer about its own complicity. It ought to be more concerned about pressing for justice than helping Bashir evade precisely that."< http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/16/china-welcomes-sudanese-president-omar-al-bashir

   06/16/2011 14:27bernardo

Will Anthony Weiner resign over his "sexting" scandal?
Honestly, guys? There's the possibility to flag the market and request settlement when the outcome is clear instead of making unfair pseudo-predictions.

   06/03/2011 21:53bernardo

The Knew The News Mug Contest: How many players will reach a 40+ market creation score during June?
I will try to deliver in a few days... let's see how inspired I am ;)

   06/02/2011 22:46bernardo

The Knew The News Mug Contest: How many players will reach a 40+ market creation score during June?
I still get an error when trying to rate a question: "HTTP/1.0 401 Unauthorized" This feature would be really nice if it worked.

   05/29/2011 21:14bernardo

Who will win the 2011 French Open Women's Singles?
And I would also like to see losing options to be lost and gone in general, if it is manageable in terms of the time people have to spend sorting out all the losing bets.

   05/29/2011 21:09bernardo

Who will win the 2011 French Open Women's Singles?
At least it shouldn't be possible to buy an impossible option.. the way Wozniacki is back in the market it looks like somebody is trying to cheat by using several accounts.

   05/28/2011 21:25bernardo

The Knew The News Mug Contest: Who will win?
Bad day in tennis for rdeggau... None of the outsider bets went through and he/she lost grip of the mug.

   05/27/2011 12:20bernardo

Will former Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladić exercise his right of self-representation in court?
Breaking News: "BELGRADE, Serbia — A defense lawyer for Ratko Mladic says a Belgrade court has ruled that the former general can be extradited to a U.N. tribunal. Milos Saljic told reporters the defense will appeal Monday. Court spokeswoman Maja Kovacevic confirmed that the court has determined that Mladic is fit to stand trial in The Hague, Netherlands." http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/lawyer-serbia-court-says-959055.html

   05/26/2011 15:00bernardo

How long will it take before Sudan and South Sudan start a war?
Haha: "Analysts have been reluctant to predict exactly what will unfold in Abyei over the coming months. On a purely human, individual level, this is entirely understandable. The region is notoriously unpredictable. No-one wants to embarrass themselves or jeopardise their reputation by making forecasts which are quickly proved inaccurate. More charitably, stakeholders naturally want to project optimism that a solution can be reached and massive bloodshed averted, rather than create a self-fulfilling prophecy of impending armageddon." (-: Sorry guys, but I have no reputation to lose... A very comprehensive analysis, though: http://www.sudantribune.com/Abyei-Predicting-the-future,38887

   05/24/2011 21:33bernardo

How many "colored" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of May 2011?
If you have a closer look at the leaderboard the two players above me and most of the grey ones below aren't active recently, so probably the two relevant players are cici and me, so if you want to make sure the outcome is 22 or 23, you could look for some of our markets were we invested most and push our net worth up or down.. of course these better be options you don't have to sell again ;)

   05/24/2011 13:20bernardo

Whooops - sorry, my mistake - the rapture is coming in october!!1!!one!!1
At least a vulcano on Iceland erupted! Of course that's nothing anyone on Iceland would be worried about, but I guess this guy still thinks he predicted exactly this eruption..

   05/24/2011 13:07bernardo

How many "colored" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of May 2011?
I was thinking of becoming corrupt, but it's a lot easier for someone with a lot of play money to just push one of my crucial markets, since my predictions are public. Maybe with so few active players it's too easy to game this kind of market.

   05/23/2011 15:48bernardo

Will a second autopsy of Salvador Allende's exhumed skeleton prove that he killed himself?
OK, my date of suspension may be too optimistic. Why do it in one month if you can get paid for half a year?

""It's necessary to open the casket, see the condition of the remains, analyze any other related evidence such as clothing, etc., to pursue the questions," said the center's director, Dr. Patricio Bustos. He said it could take until early next year for the 12-member forensic team to determine the cause of death." http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g-GGU4QKwdH7weR4twXDXCJS5dmQ?docId=560423f714b8464e8c6ae1408a0ed417

   05/22/2011 19:16bernardo

International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn: Guilty of attempted rape?
Thanks for clarifying.

   05/22/2011 17:43bernardo

International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn: Guilty of attempted rape?
I don't understand the "no verdict" option, if this settles on announcement of the verdict by the court. If it settles on the date of suspension the initial odds are off, because the process probably won't even start in the next several months. "A trial may be six months or more away." http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/21/us-strausskahn-idUSN2130271120110521

   05/16/2011 17:17bernardo

The Knew The News Mug Contest: Who will win?
I'm jealous of the percentage of this "Other" guy.

   05/15/2011 22:54bernardo

Cycling: Who will win the Points Race in the Giro d'Italia?
And this belongs to the "sports" category. Question creation requires a tiny bit of effort and thinking ;)

   05/15/2011 22:52bernardo

Cycling: Who will win the Points Race in the Giro d'Italia?
Hm, what is "points race" supposed to be? I understood the other question about "king of the mountains" to be about the red shirt, so is this about the green shirt i.e. the sprinter's classification?

   05/10/2011 13:18bernardo

Will a sovereign state of Palestine at peace with Israel be established by the end of September?
I didn't even know how far the talks had come before the gaza war in 2008/09:
"Palestinian negotiators secretly agreed to allow Israel to annex all but one of the settlements built in occupied East Jerusalem in the most far-reaching concessions ever made over the bitterly contested city. The offer was turned down by Israel's then foreign minister as inadequate.
[...]the Israeli negotiator Tzipi Livni is recorded as dismissing the offer out of hand because the Palestinians had refused to concede Har Homa, as well as the settlements at Ma'ale Adumim, near Jerusalem, and Ariel, deeper in the West Bank." http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/23/palestinians-israel-biggest-jerusalem-history

   05/04/2011 20:58bernardo

Will a sovereign state of Palestine at peace with Israel be established by the end of September?
Some politicians seem to have the schedule in mind. I don't know if they go on summer-holidays there, but further movement is likely.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-foreign-ministry-views-hamas-fatah-deal-differently-than-netanyahu-1.359706

   04/30/2011 11:53bernardo

What will be the result of the UK Alternative Vote referendum?
The polls seem to be a little tricky to interpret, since "No" has a strong lead but turnout is said to be highly overestimated and I'm not sure which side will be favoured by that.

"Two opinion polls published on Thursday showed big leads for the no campaign among those certain to vote. A ComRes poll for the no campaign showed it leading the yes camp by 60% to 40% among those certain to vote and excluding don't knows.
When don't knows were included, the response was no 45% and yes 33%, with don't know at 22%. [...]
All polls appear flawed in that 50-60% of those surveyed said they were certain to vote, and few believe turnout will reach anything like that level." http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/28/ed-miliband-labour-alternative-vote

   03/27/2011 19:45bernardo

Will there be a news report of 50+ Chinese pro-democracy demonstrators being arrested ?
"In recent weeks nearly two dozen writers, lawyers and civil society advocates have been detained on criminal charges and 11 more people have vanished into police custody. " http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/world/asia/26china.html?src=me

   03/24/2011 18:56bernardo

Will COO Patrick Pélata leave Renault over the embarrassing spying debacle?
But technically it's kind of sure that he won't. This was one of the problems I had with hubdub's suspending-policy: That it too often comes down to just being the first to read the "final" news that could be seen as a reason for settlement but what happens is some people get rich just by pushing the market above 90%. It's probably difficult to resolve this issue by some general rule...

   03/24/2011 13:36bernardo

Will COO Patrick Pélata leave Renault over the embarrassing spying debacle?
Why isn't the market suspended, then?