11/23/2020 05:54Knurled

US Presidential elections. Will the 2016 winner be elected for a second term in 2020?
It's a bit premature to settle this question. The official state results have not been returned, the electoral college has not voted and the next president has not been inaugurated. In the mean time, various state results have been disputed, and lawsuits have been initiated.

   11/23/2020 05:53Knurled

Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?
It's a bit premature to settle this question. The official state results have not been returned, the electoral college has not voted and the next president has not been inaugurated.

   10/10/2020 11:58Knurled

Will prediction-site Pollyvote correctly predict the winner of US president elections on Nov 3 2020?
I'm assuming the question means "correctly predict the winner".

Also, there are daily predictions. Which day's prediction is the one in question?

   02/13/2020 03:58Knurled

When will the United Kingdom leave the European Union?
I think this can be settled now.
https://infogalactic.com/info/Brexit

   01/17/2020 17:33Knurled

The impeachment of Donald Trump. What will happen?
Impeachment is the first part of the process, and is performed by the House of Representatives. It is the political equivalent of being "indicted" - a formal *accusation* of something.

The second part is the trial which is held in the Senate. It requires a supermajority (2/3) vote to convict.

Two possible interpretations of this question's outcomes:

FIRST:
No *attempted* Impeachment (no longer valid);
Attempted impeachment first term, but no articles of impeachment passed in HR = "unsuccessful" (no longer valid)
Attempted impeachment, passed in HR (current status);
Attempted impeachment in both terms, but neither passes HR (no longer valid)
Attempted impeachment in second term, but does not pass in HR (probably no longer valid)
Attempted impeachment in second term, and articles of impeachment passed in HR (probably no longer valid)

SECOND:
No articles of impeachment passed in HR at all (no longer valid)
Impeachment passed in HR, but no conviction in Senate trial (possible outcome)
Impeachment passed in HR, AND conviction in Senate trial (possible outcome)
Impeachment passed twice (in separate terms), but no conviction for either in Senate trial
Impeachment passes in second term only, but no conviction in trial (no longer valid)
Impeachment passes in second term only, and conviction in trial (no longer valid)

The last two outcomes of each are not valid as stated, since they implicitly exclude any occurrence in the first term.

For the first interpretation two additional possible outcomes have not been stated:
Articles of Impeachment passed ("successful") in both terms (perhaps the first trial ended in acquittal, or additional articles passed before end of trial)
Articles of Impeachment passed in first term, but not the second. (still an open possibility)

The second interpretation is more self-consistent - no additional outcomes are necessary.

That's why I lean to this one in my predicting.

Has anyone heard from @Stephen Tilley, the author of this question?

   12/23/2019 03:50Knurled

The impeachment of Donald Trump. What will happen?
I agree that the question is ambiguous. A straight-forward interpretation could be that the "successful" refers to removal from office.
As it is, even the impeachment itself is arguably not complete at the current time:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/dec/20/noah-feldman-democrat-impeachment-witness-says-tru/

   12/21/2019 22:11Knurled

The impeachment of Donald Trump. What will happen?
The question is not ready to be settled until his SECOND term is finished.

   10/30/2019 02:45Knurled

Will there be a General Election in the United Kingdom during 2019?
Not sure I would have settled it just yet. I'd wait until the details are finalized. The House of Lords still has to vote on the bill.

   10/26/2019 22:25Knurled

When will the United Kingdom leave the European Union?
Should we assume that the middle option is between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2020, inclusive?

The outcomes are currently worded:
* On or Before 31st December 2019
* On or Before 31st December 2020
* Not before suspension (31st December 2024)

This means that October 31 2019 would satisfy two outcomes.

   06/25/2017 17:58Knurled

Will another U.S state add "X.non-binary"option too their drivers licenses in 2017?
Assuming this means *any* third (not M/F) gender, even if not named exactly "X.non-binary".

   11/13/2016 03:36Knurled

How will Politico's 11 swing states poll in the 2016 presidential election?
This should be settled as Clinton 4, Trump 7:

Colorado, HRC
Florida, DJT
Iowa, DJT
Michigan, DJT
Nevada, HRC
New Hampshire, HRC
North Carolina, DJT
Ohio, DJT
Pennsylvania, DJT
Virginia HRC
Wisconsin DJT

For DJT: 7: FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, WI
For HRC: 4: CO, NV, NH, VA

https://www.google.com/search?q=presidential+election+results+2016+by+state&rlz=1C1GPCK_enUS446US447&oq=presidential+election+results+2016+by+state&aqs=chrome..69i57.12696j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#eob=enn/p//0/0///////////

   11/05/2016 03:04Knurled

How will Politico's 11 swing states poll in the 2016 presidential election?
10

   07/12/2016 12:16Knurled

US 2016 Presidential election. What will be the first letter of Vice-Presidential winner's surname?
Does the question refer to first name (e.g. Stephen) or last name (e.g. Tilley)?

   06/10/2016 13:23Knurled

Ukraine: Will there be local elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before winter?
They had apparently agreed to hold elections in February 2016, but have not held them yet:
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160610/1041118378/donbass-ukraine-elections-constitution.html
Looks like the "No's" have it.

   05/31/2016 22:57Knurled

Everybody tells me, 'Please run for president. Please run for president' - Donald Trump 2016?
Pretty sure he has "thought about running for President". More than just thinking.

Let's settle it.

   10/22/2015 21:30Knurled

Will the US Congress override the threatened veto of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)?
Looks like the veto happened. Now to see if Congress overrides the veto.

   04/17/2014 19:32Knurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 18.04.2014?
Stock market is closed for Good Friday.

http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-good-friday-2014-4

   01/30/2014 22:02Knurled

Will the Washington Redskins lose its federal trademark registration?
It's grandfathered in, and any litigation will probably not finish before suspension date (5/31/2014).

   11/27/2013 20:09Knurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 28.11.2013?
I think the markets will be closed on Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2013.

   11/07/2013 02:00Knurled

Will a new autopsy reveal that Yasir Arafat was poisoned with radioactive Polonium?
From Reuters:

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat was poisoned to death in 2004 with radioactive polonium, his widow Suha said on Wednesday after receiving the results of Swiss forensic tests on her husband's corpse.

...

Professor David Barclay, a British forensic scientist retained by Al Jazeera to interpret the results of the Swiss tests, said the findings from Arafat's body confirmed the earlier results from traces of bodily fluids on his underwear, toothbrush and clothing.

"In my opinion, it is absolutely certain that the cause of his illness was polonium poisoning," Barclay told Reuters. "The levels present in him are sufficient to have caused death.

"What we have got is the smoking gun - the thing that caused his illness and was given to him with malice."

   10/14/2013 14:24Knurled

Will a new autopsy reveal that Yasir Arafat was poisoned with radioactive Polonium?
Swiss radiation experts have confirmed they found traces of polonium on clothing used by Yasser Arafat which "support the possibility" the veteran Palestinian leader was poisoned.

In a report published by The Lancet at the weekend, the team provide scientific details to media statements made in 2012 that they had found polonium on Arafat's belongings.

http://www.france24.com/en/20131014-radiation-experts-confirm-polonium-arafat-clothing

   10/10/2013 14:24Knurled

If Not Geithner, Who Will Replace Bernanke?
Presumably the question will be settled when the nominee is confirmed, right?

   05/03/2013 22:20Knurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 06.05.2013?
It's "about even" much more than 30,0% of the time.

   12/07/2012 17:04Knurled

What will be the U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) November 2012 ?
The final number is 7.7%.

   12/03/2012 19:27Knurled

Will the current Uganda Ebola outbreak spread to the US?
Looks like this one is ready to settle.
"Ugandan health officials are declaring the country free of an Ebola outbreak blamed for 17 deaths since late July."
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/06/health/uganda-ebola-free/index.html

   12/03/2012 18:47Knurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 29.11.2012?
This one should be ready to settle...

   11/27/2012 22:58Knurled

How many people will board UFOs during the apocalypse on Dec. 21st, in Bugarach (FR)?
Are the third and fourth choice valid if there is NO apocalypse, but there IS a UFO?

   11/14/2012 15:03Knurled

What will be the closing price of Apple Inc. (AAPL) on Friday, November 16, 2012?
Any feedback on the "bucket size" (range of each prediction option) of this question? Too small? Too large?

I find larger buckets have a disadvantage in that you can easily lose if the final value of the statistic is just over the line. With small buckets it's easy to avoid this by dividing the stake into as many buckets as needed for the expected range. Since the odds are higher with smaller buckets, this is less of a risk: the payoff from splitting a bet between two 20% buckets is the same as putting it all on one 40% one.

   11/12/2012 23:31Knurled

Filibuster reform: Will the "nuclear option" be used?
Does "No Reform Proposed" need to be re-worded to something like "No Reform Passes"? It doesn't appear that there's any prediction for "no change to Senate filibuster rules in January 2013".

   11/12/2012 15:16Knurled

What will be the U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) October 2012 ?
Looks like the final number is 7.9% at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE?rid=50&soid=22

   10/29/2012 20:45Knurled

Will polltracker TrackingPointsMemo predict the Winner of US Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?
Which prediction is "final" for this question? Polltracker is currently predicting an Obama victory. If before the election they change their prediction, which one is the operative prediction? One conclusion in that case could be that if either candidate wins they "did predict correctly" (at some point).

   10/29/2012 20:36Knurled

Will election.princeton.edu predict the Winner of US Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?
It appears that Princeton will be updating their predictions up until the election is finalized. Is the question here whether Princeton's October 29th predictions (Obama wins re-election: Random Drift 91%, Bayesian Prediction 97%) are correct? Or if the prediction changes (possibly up to election night) is *that* the one to compare to the actual election? The title may need adjusting to reflect the actual question.

   10/26/2012 15:57Knurled

Will Silvio Berlusconi be convicted of any crime during 2012?
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/berlusconi-sentenced-to-four-years-in-prison.html

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Berlusconi-Sentenced-to-4-Years-in-Prison-for-3984361.php

   10/26/2012 15:56Knurled

Will Silvio Berlusconi be convicted of any crime during 2012?
Time to close this one. He's been convicted of tax evasion and sentenced to 4 years.

   10/23/2012 13:21Knurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 23.10.2012?
Based on yesterday's close at $13,345.89,
+1.50% +$200.19 $13,546.08
+0.50% +$66.73 $13,412.62
-0.50% -$66.73 $13,279.16
-1.50% -$200.19 $13,145.70

   10/22/2012 16:13Knurled

3rd Presidential Debate: Boca Raton, Oct 22nd, Who will win?
Regarding settlement and the poll: will the question be judged by the poll of "undecided voters" as CBS did last time or "debate watchers" as CNN did? See http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57533850/poll-obama-edges-romney-in-second-debate/
and http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/19/poll-debate-watchers-thought-obama-won/

   10/19/2012 21:17Knurled

Will Sandy Crocker find his Irish beauty?
Sorry fella, I'm betting 'no'.

   10/19/2012 16:10Knurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 19.10.2012?
Price points are:
+1.5% = $13,752.17
+0.5% = $13,616.68
-0.5% = $13,481.20
-1.5% = $13,345.71
Current price is $13,398.87 (-1.11%)