Author Archives: kruijs

Prediction Markets — How to protect yourself from ‘prediction addiction’

By Tom Stevenson, The Telegraph, November 18, 2013 In a few weeks’ time a Christmas tradition as familiar as brandy butter and tinsel will kick off: the annual round of market predictions. It’s a bit of fun and in a year’s time no one will remember anyone’s forecasts. This is just as well because the […]

About:Media — Retraction for our 1863 editorial calling Gettysburg Address ‘silly remarks’

By Patriot-News Editorial Board, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013 We write today in reconsideration of “The Gettysburg Address,” delivered by then-President Abraham Lincoln in the midst of the greatest conflict seen on American soil. Our predecessors, perhaps under the influence of partisanship, or of strong drink, as was common in the profession at the time, called […]

Prediction Markets — The Twitter IPO Shows Why Prediction Markets Should Be Legal

By Adam Ozimek, Forbes, November 7, 2013 Today as Twitter is having it’s IPO on the New York Stock exchange it is a nice reminder of the value of prediction markets. Given the uncertainty and the extent of disagreement among analysts, it would be useful to have a simple, objective, market based aggregation of beliefs […]

About:Media — NSA files decoded: Edward Snowden’s surveillance revelations explained

By The Guardian, Friday Nov. 01, 2013 When Edward Snowden met journalists in his cramped room in Hong Kong’s Mira hotel in June, his mission was ambitious. Amid the clutter of laundry, meal trays and his four laptops, he wanted to start a debate about mass surveillance. He succeeded beyond anything the journalists or Snowden […]

About:Media — 3 tips to help journalists debunk misinformation

By Craig Silverman, Poynter., Monday Oct. 21, 2013 Having the truth on your side is a necessary thing when trying to debunk misinformation. But it’s far from enough. The truth alone does not change minds, create belief. Convincing people of your argument, or correcting someone else’s lies, requires more than unearthing the truth and reciting […]

Why taxes are good for the game

It was a long way to get here. Many people with a broad range of political views offered their experience and shared opinions in a heated debate. The issue was a basic one: How to deal with wealthy people, who do not contribute in the community, keeping liquidity away from the society, and basically hampering […]

About:Media — A Journalist-Agitator Facing Prison Over a Link

By David Carr, The New York Times, September 8, 2013 Barrett Brown makes for a pretty complicated victim. A Dallas-based journalist obsessed with the government’s ties to private security firms, Mr. Brown has been in jail for a year, facing charges that carry a combined penalty of more than 100 years in prison. In December […]

Prediction Markets — Prediction Isn’t Just About Stocks. Predictive Persuasion

By David Leinweber, Forbes, September 12, 2013 Prediction isn’t just for the stock market. Trading is just one of many ways to cash in on quantitative foresight. For mass marketing – and even presidential campaigns – it’s another story. In those areas, putting odds on the future generates a different kind of power: the power […]

Prediction Markets — Can The Crowd Predict The Economy?

By Adi Gaskell, adigaskell.org, September 2, 2013 James Surowiecki’s Wisdom of Crowds was published almost a decade ago now, and in that time his ideas on the power of crowds have helped spawn the crowdsourcing movement. The idea that under the right conditions the crowd is more intelligent than the smartest of experts is a […]

Prediction Markets — The Folly of Prediction

By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, June 6, 2011 Fact: Human beings love to predict the future. Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the future. Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect — bad predictions are rarely punished — this situation is unlikely to change. But wouldn’t it be nice if […]

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