Category Archives: Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets — Who Will Lead the Senate? Follow the Prediction Markets

By Justin Wolfers, nytimes.com, Oct 11, 2014 How would commentary on the midterm election look if economists, rather than Beltway pundits, were calling the race? You would read a lot less about personalities, gaffes and gossip, and a lot more about fundamentals like the state of the economy. And you would certainly get a more […]

Prediction Markets — Bookies may be best bet to predict Referendum

By University of Stirling, phys.org, May 28, 2014 Professor David Bell from the University of Stirling looked at using “prediction markets” – which include the gambling industry – to forecast the outcome of the referendum. He concluded that these markets often produce more accurate results than relying on opinion polls, which sample opinion on the […]

Prediction Markets — Let Prediction Markets Flourish

By Adam Ozimek, Forbes, March 23, 2014 The existing evidence is positive about these markets as forecasting and information aggregation tools. But when looking at examples where these markets have underperformed we should really remember that even when Intrade was operating legally there were significant regulatory restrictions placed upon it, and most participants were operating […]

Prediction Markets — Will the economy crash in march?

By Minda Zetlin, inc.com, Jan 8, 2014 Somewhere between March and June of this year, look for a worldwide economic downturn that will cause huge losses in stock exchanges around the globe. That prediction comes from Gerald Celente, who heads the Trends Research Institute. For more than 25 years, Celente has been making predictions about […]

Prediction Markets — How to protect yourself from ‘prediction addiction’

By Tom Stevenson, The Telegraph, November 18, 2013 In a few weeks’ time a Christmas tradition as familiar as brandy butter and tinsel will kick off: the annual round of market predictions. It’s a bit of fun and in a year’s time no one will remember anyone’s forecasts. This is just as well because the […]

Prediction Markets — The Twitter IPO Shows Why Prediction Markets Should Be Legal

By Adam Ozimek, Forbes, November 7, 2013 Today as Twitter is having it’s IPO on the New York Stock exchange it is a nice reminder of the value of prediction markets. Given the uncertainty and the extent of disagreement among analysts, it would be useful to have a simple, objective, market based aggregation of beliefs […]

Prediction Markets — Prediction Isn’t Just About Stocks. Predictive Persuasion

By David Leinweber, Forbes, September 12, 2013 Prediction isn’t just for the stock market. Trading is just one of many ways to cash in on quantitative foresight. For mass marketing – and even presidential campaigns – it’s another story. In those areas, putting odds on the future generates a different kind of power: the power […]

Prediction Markets — Can The Crowd Predict The Economy?

By Adi Gaskell, adigaskell.org, September 2, 2013 James Surowiecki’s Wisdom of Crowds was published almost a decade ago now, and in that time his ideas on the power of crowds have helped spawn the crowdsourcing movement. The idea that under the right conditions the crowd is more intelligent than the smartest of experts is a […]

Prediction Markets — The Folly of Prediction

By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, June 6, 2011 Fact: Human beings love to predict the future. Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the future. Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect — bad predictions are rarely punished — this situation is unlikely to change. But wouldn’t it be nice if […]

Prediction Markets — 10 worst tech predictions of all time

By Mark Spoonauer, Laptop, Saturday Aug. 10, 2013 In the technology world, bold predictions abound, and they should. Placing big bets in one direction or another is how this industry works. Some pundits try to make educated guesses about where tech is headed, while others prognosticate in reaction to disruptive technologies that could boost (or […]

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