Category Archives: Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets — Psychology Influences Markets

By Marcus Woo, California Institute of Technology, Monday July 1, 2013 Economists argue that markets usually reflect rational behavior—that is, the dominant players in a market, such as the hedge-fund managers who make billions of dollars’ worth of trades, almost always make well-informed and objective decisions. Psychologists, on the other hand, say that markets are […]

Prediction Markets — Why my prediction market failed–B.C. Votes 2013

By Werner Antweiler, The Globe And Mail, Thursday 16 May 2013 Tuesday’s resounding election win by the B.C. Liberals has caught most people by surprise as polls, pundits and prediction markets were all forecasting a large win by the NDP. How could they all have been so wrong? Traders in a prediction market aggregate news […]

Prediction Markets — Value among the Crowd

By Philip Delves Broughton, Financial Times, Wednesday 24 April 2013 The idea behind prediction markets for companies is that the accumulation of informed opinion will be more accurate than the best guesses of ex­ec­utives. They have been billed as a way to tap communities of employees, consumers and experts to generate in­sights into issues affecting […]

Propose Questions

Question creation made easy. Instead of completely eleborate all aspects of a question, including possible outcomes and likelihoods, users may now simply ask a question and submit it to be finished by one of the super users on the site. This allows users who don’t feel sure about how a question is created to still […]

Coming up: Knew The News competitions

Within Knew The News, this new feature would allow players to compete within a limited group of fellow predictors. Once running, the players could make predictions on a subset of markets, which would be made available for the competition, and the competition would eventually end on a certain date eventually revealing a winning competitor. Starting […]

Users operate and develop Website independently: Collective Intelligence defines the game

Online news prediction site “Knew The News” is the first to rely on the collective intelligence of its users to run and further develop the website. By doing so Knew The News goes beyond what similar websites offer. Each player is not only responsible for the questions that he or she creates, but ultimately for the entire website itself. The success of the website is a result of the collective intelligence of the players on the site.

Market Creation on Knew The News

The markets on Knew The News are user generated, and any user is welcome to contribute his own markets. Technically, creating markets – or “question” as many like to name them – is a straight forward procedure: Hit the “Create Market” link on top of the page and simply fill in all fields of the […]

Knew The News: Website Launch

As of December 1st, 2010, Knew The News went public. What is Knew The News? Knew The News is a free community driven news prediction site, based on the Hansons Market Maker algothms. Using a virtual currency, members make predictions on the outcome of news events by buying stakes on different outcome options. By doing […]

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