Prediction Markets — How to protect yourself from ‘prediction addiction’

By Tom Stevenson, The Telegraph, November 18, 2013

In a few weeks’ time a Christmas tradition as familiar as brandy butter and tinsel will kick off: the annual round of market predictions. It’s a bit of fun and in a year’s time no one will remember anyone’s forecasts. This is just as well because the one really predictable thing is that most of them will turn out to be horribly wrong.

Hardly a day goes by when we are not reminded of the folly of forecasting. Inflation rises less than we expect but employment is up by more; company results are better or worse than forecast; interest rates are cut out of the blue while events that look a racing certainty (Fed “taper”, anyone?) fail to show up. If we can’t get these short-term predictions right, what hope should we have of nailing the longer-term outlook?

Now then, where do I think the FTSE 100 will be next Christmas?

Read all: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10456856/FTSE-100-prediction-for-2014-How-to-protect-yourself-from-prediction-addiction.html

About:Media — Retraction for our 1863 editorial calling Gettysburg Address ‘silly remarks’

By Patriot-News Editorial Board, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013

We write today in reconsideration of “The Gettysburg Address,” delivered by then-President Abraham Lincoln in the midst of the greatest conflict seen on American soil. Our predecessors, perhaps under the influence of partisanship, or of strong drink, as was common in the profession at the time, called President Lincoln’s words “silly remarks,” deserving “a veil of oblivion,” apparently believing it an indifferent and altogether ordinary message, unremarkable in eloquence and uninspiring in its brevity.

In the fullness of time, we have come to a different conclusion. No mere utterance, then or now, could do justice to the soaring heights of language Mr. Lincoln reached that day. By today’s words alone, we cannot exalt, we cannot hallow, we cannot venerate this sacred text, for a grateful nation long ago came to view those words with reverence, without guidance from this chagrined member of the mainstream media.

Read all: http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2013/11/a_patriot-news_editorial_retraction_the_gettysburg_address.html

Prediction Markets — The Twitter IPO Shows Why Prediction Markets Should Be Legal

By Adam Ozimek, Forbes, November 7, 2013

Today as Twitter is having it’s IPO on the New York Stock exchange it is a nice reminder of the value of prediction markets.

Given the uncertainty and the extent of disagreement among analysts, it would be useful to have a simple, objective, market based aggregation of beliefs about what Twitter will be worth. Prediction markets could provide this. In fact, there is evidence they are good at this.

If financial journalism is socially valuable, then so too would be prediction markets designed to create actually objective opinion aggregations. It is hard to argue for allowing one and banning the other.

Read all: http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2013/11/07/the-twitter-ipo-shows-why-prediction-markets-should-be-legal/#!

About:Media — NSA files decoded: Edward Snowden’s surveillance revelations explained

By The Guardian, Friday Nov. 01, 2013

When Edward Snowden met journalists in his cramped room in Hong Kong’s Mira hotel in June, his mission was ambitious. Amid the clutter of laundry, meal trays and his four laptops, he wanted to start a debate about mass surveillance. He succeeded beyond anything the journalists or Snowden himself ever imagined. His disclosures about the NSA resonated with Americans from day one. But they also exploded round the world.

In the last five months, the NSA’s surveillance practices have been revealed to be a massive international operation, staggering in scope. But how do all of the NSA’s programmes fit together – and what does it mean for you?

Read all: http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/nov/01/snowden-nsa-files-surveillance-revelations-decoded

About:Media — 3 tips to help journalists debunk misinformation

By Craig Silverman, Poynter., Monday Oct. 21, 2013

Having the truth on your side is a necessary thing when trying to debunk misinformation. But it’s far from enough.

The truth alone does not change minds, create belief. Convincing people of your argument, or correcting someone else’s lies, requires more than unearthing the truth and reciting the facts. So what’s a journalist to do?

Overall, journalists need to understand that how you present your facts is a major factor in effective debunking.

If you want someone to believe something, don’t shower them with facts and stats; craft that supporting material into a story, a counter-narrative that makes sense as a story and makes it easy for the person to remember your main point. Seek out sources who help push that narrative but won’t harm it with partisan baggage

Read all: http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/regret-the-error/226601/researchers-have-3-tips-to-help-journalists-debunk-misinformation/

Why taxes are good for the game

It was a long way to get here. Many people with a broad range of political views offered their experience and shared opinions in a heated debate. The issue was a basic one: How to deal with wealthy people, who do not contribute in the community, keeping liquidity away from the society, and basically hampering volatility in a game based on money transactions.

Surely, nobody should be taken away its prosperity, which was earned honestly, and with huge effort and commitment. But since the refusal to participate is probably as damaging to the system as imposing incentives to keep these people investing their liquid funds is costly, the decision is merely a decision based on other reasons.

“Technically, the introduction of a technology which tracks the activity of community members isn’t a big deal,” says Constantinus van der Kruijs, founder of Knew The News, “but to reach an agreement among all of them on measures which could address this situation was far more complicated.” Nevertheless, a basic understanding was reached that inactive accounts with a huge portion of their wealth in cash should not be allowed to stay on top of a wealth leaderboard indefinitely.

“The question was: ‘How do we reduce the wealth of people who have lost interest in the game’ while at the same time prevent unjustified punishment of occasional players,” van der Kruijs adds. The solution now found, and imposed within the near future, will introduce a penalty of 1% of a player’s cash value which deducted once a day after a month of inactivity.

But the fortunate player will not lose all of its achievements. Van der Kruijs explains: “We still recognize the achievement of piling up such cash amounts by keeping track of every players’ highest net value in a separate all time net value leaderboard.” But that leaderboard is no longer the standard wealth leaderboard. And as such, van der Kruijs emphasizes, “any player will notice that it is possible to reach a top ranking on the wealth leaderboard, as long as you invest your money actively”. To give even more opportunity, the daily sign up bonus was generously increased to 1,000 KtN$.

“I encourage every new player to start today, and I promise that you’ll get to reach a top wealth leaderboard position within just a few months,” prompts Knew The News founder van der Kruijs, ” not to mention the various promotions on the site, which promise rewards for several achievements on the site.”

About:Media — A Journalist-Agitator Facing Prison Over a Link

By David Carr, The New York Times, September 8, 2013

Barrett Brown makes for a pretty complicated victim. A Dallas-based journalist obsessed with the government’s ties to private security firms, Mr. Brown has been in jail for a year, facing charges that carry a combined penalty of more than 100 years in prison.

In December 2012 he was charged with 12 counts related to identity theft. Over all he faces 17 charges — including three related to the purported threat of the F.B.I. officer and two obstruction of justice counts — that carry a possible sentence of 105 years, and he awaits trial in a jail in Mansfield, Tex.

According to one of the indictments, by linking to the files, Mr. Brown “provided access to data stolen from company Stratfor Global Intelligence to include in excess of 5,000 credit card account numbers, the card holders’ identification information, and the authentication features for the credit cards.”

By trying to criminalize linking, the federal authorities in the Northern District of Texas — Mr. Brown lives in Dallas — are suggesting that to share information online is the same as possessing it or even stealing it.

And the magnitude of the charges is confounding. Jeremy Hammond, a Chicago man who pleaded guilty to participating in the actual hacking of Stratfor in the first place, is facing a sentence of 10 years.

Read all: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/09/business/media/a-journalist-agitator-facing-prison-over-a-link.html

Prediction Markets — Prediction Isn’t Just About Stocks. Predictive Persuasion

By David Leinweber, Forbes, September 12, 2013

Prediction isn’t just for the stock market. Trading is just one of many ways to cash in on quantitative foresight. For mass marketing – and even presidential campaigns – it’s another story. In those areas, putting odds on the future generates a different kind of power: the power to influence and persuade people – the power to not only predict but to actually change the future.

Persuasion by way of prediction is a whole other side to the big data world.

Read all: http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidleinweber/2013/09/12/prediction-isnt-just-about-stocks-predictive-persuasion/#!

Prediction Markets — Can The Crowd Predict The Economy?

By Adi Gaskell, adigaskell.org, September 2, 2013

James Surowiecki’s Wisdom of Crowds was published almost a decade ago now, and in that time his ideas on the power of crowds have helped spawn the crowdsourcing movement. The idea that under the right conditions the crowd is more intelligent than the smartest of experts is a simple yet beguiling one.

Prediction markets are one manifestation of this theory, with organisations allowing people to bet on a particular issue, and the aggregation of those bets used to predict the outcome. The CrowdMed site for instance use prediction markets to try and improve medical diagnosis.

Can the crowd successfully predict arguably the most complex system on the planet though? That was what the Adam Smith Institute and Paddy Power have set out to discover.

They have launched a prediction market to try and use the wisdom of crowds on economic planning. The market will ask participants to place bets on what they believe the rates of inflation and unemployment will be in June 2015.

Read all: http://www.adigaskell.org/blog/2013/09/02/can-the-crowd-predict-the-economy/

Prediction Markets — The Folly of Prediction

By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, June 6, 2011

Fact: Human beings love to predict the future.

Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the future.

Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect — bad predictions are rarely punished — this situation is unlikely to change.

But wouldn’t it be nice if it did?

That is the gist of our latest hour-long special of Freakonomics Radio, called “The Folly of Prediction.”

Read all: http://freakonomics.com/2011/06/30/freakonomics-radio-hour-long-episode-4-%E2%80%9Cthe-folly-of-prediction%E2%80%9D-2/