User Profile
kenneth1
Member since 01/29/2011
All time highest net worth: 1,238,001.77 KtN$ (reached: 08/05/2013)
Current net worth : 1,136.86 KtN$
Predictions : 8,215
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My goodness, came here to post you a shout, and got a 5 year education!. I'm a guesser whereas others are manipulators. Oh well. So you can believe me when I say I was serious about asking you to give me a reason to vote for Obama. I'm certainly not looking to argue. I can not see any reason to vote for him and am looking for some enlightenment. There are minds like yours, all in for him. What am I missing??
Hey welcome back Ken. It's been a while!
Liked your Gaddafi report! They should try for more dictators running ...
Ken,
I am in New York about 100 miles from NYC and we felt the shaking here too. I hope that you and all of your family and friends are safe.
As to the use of Odds Manipulation, I never wanted to use it in the first place. I just did it as an experiment to show you how well it worked and how much of an unfair advantage its users really had. I figured that when everyone saw that I went up from 1.5 million to 6.5 million overnight that someone would have stepped in to stop it then but either no one noticed or no one cared. I hope you noticed that I stopped before I passed you. I could have easily been in third place or better but didn't want to pass you in this way.
You say that the site developers are trying to discourage this system and feeling stress because of its use, IT'S THEIR OWN FAULT! Appearently some people have been using it for a long time so it is not a new problem. After reading the forum posts for the past few weeks it seems everyone is trying to come up with a Rube Goldberg* solution for the problem. If Kruijs has the power to void all of the financial markets and also ban the creation of any new financial markets until the problem is solved, he obviously has the power to make a rule banning the use of any odds manipulation strategy that gives any player an unfair advantage. I give him credit for finally taking a stand. He can end the problem before his morning coffee gets cold.
Paragraph 1, Brief description of what ODDS MANIPULATION is and how it hurts everyone that plays the game.
Paragraph 2, Odds Manipulation is banned because it gives the user an unfair advantage over everyone else.
Paragraph 3, First offense, public warning and loss of all ill gotten gains. Second offense, Loss of half of offenders wealth. Third offense, Players account closed. Can start with new account after 30 days.
Post these new rules on home page and email to every player.
If this is added to the official rules, do you think anyone is still going to try to use their odds manipulation strategy? I don't. It isn't something that can be hidden so if anyone tries someone else will notice and flag the market.
The punishments are based on ones put in by HubDub to deal with a cheating problem there.
After this the financial markets can be returned and everything can get back to normal.
I know that you and the others who are much more knowledgeable than I in probability theory and computer programing are working on changes to accomodate larger wagers. After the leaders net worth is readjusted to compensate for the inflation caused by using this system the game is more likely to operate the way it was designed to. Maybe the game will only need some minor tweeking instead of a complete overhaul.
I will gladly refrain from using any odds manipulation system as long as no one else uses one either. Also anyone can deduct the 5,000,000$ that I gained from my experimenting with the system.
When the game is played the way it is intended it is fun and the leader boards are a fair guage of a players abilities. I view it as inteligent competition and I learn about a lot of things that I never would have heard about without the wide variety of players questions. The way it is being played now it is a contest to see who can gain the most wealth by bending the rules the most. No fun.
If you agree with anything that I said and think it will help feel free to pass this on to Kruijs or anyone else in a position of authority. You seem to be in communication with them and know them better than I do. Just be sure to leave my name on it so If anyone isn't happy with it they can come after me and not you.
I am in New York about 100 miles from NYC and we felt the shaking here too. I hope that you and all of your family and friends are safe.
As to the use of Odds Manipulation, I never wanted to use it in the first place. I just did it as an experiment to show you how well it worked and how much of an unfair advantage its users really had. I figured that when everyone saw that I went up from 1.5 million to 6.5 million overnight that someone would have stepped in to stop it then but either no one noticed or no one cared. I hope you noticed that I stopped before I passed you. I could have easily been in third place or better but didn't want to pass you in this way.
You say that the site developers are trying to discourage this system and feeling stress because of its use, IT'S THEIR OWN FAULT! Appearently some people have been using it for a long time so it is not a new problem. After reading the forum posts for the past few weeks it seems everyone is trying to come up with a Rube Goldberg* solution for the problem. If Kruijs has the power to void all of the financial markets and also ban the creation of any new financial markets until the problem is solved, he obviously has the power to make a rule banning the use of any odds manipulation strategy that gives any player an unfair advantage. I give him credit for finally taking a stand. He can end the problem before his morning coffee gets cold.
Paragraph 1, Brief description of what ODDS MANIPULATION is and how it hurts everyone that plays the game.
Paragraph 2, Odds Manipulation is banned because it gives the user an unfair advantage over everyone else.
Paragraph 3, First offense, public warning and loss of all ill gotten gains. Second offense, Loss of half of offenders wealth. Third offense, Players account closed. Can start with new account after 30 days.
Post these new rules on home page and email to every player.
If this is added to the official rules, do you think anyone is still going to try to use their odds manipulation strategy? I don't. It isn't something that can be hidden so if anyone tries someone else will notice and flag the market.
The punishments are based on ones put in by HubDub to deal with a cheating problem there.
After this the financial markets can be returned and everything can get back to normal.
I know that you and the others who are much more knowledgeable than I in probability theory and computer programing are working on changes to accomodate larger wagers. After the leaders net worth is readjusted to compensate for the inflation caused by using this system the game is more likely to operate the way it was designed to. Maybe the game will only need some minor tweeking instead of a complete overhaul.
I will gladly refrain from using any odds manipulation system as long as no one else uses one either. Also anyone can deduct the 5,000,000$ that I gained from my experimenting with the system.
When the game is played the way it is intended it is fun and the leader boards are a fair guage of a players abilities. I view it as inteligent competition and I learn about a lot of things that I never would have heard about without the wide variety of players questions. The way it is being played now it is a contest to see who can gain the most wealth by bending the rules the most. No fun.
If you agree with anything that I said and think it will help feel free to pass this on to Kruijs or anyone else in a position of authority. You seem to be in communication with them and know them better than I do. Just be sure to leave my name on it so If anyone isn't happy with it they can come after me and not you.
Ken,
I followed your suggestion and tried an experiment the other night. It was very successful as you may have noticed from the wealth leaderboard. I sent you a direct message after but don't know if you got it or not. It was my first time trying a direct message and don't know how it works. I believe I have a new variation of the "clever strategy". With 5 minutes and a reliable internet connection I can get in, get out and make a profit with only a minimal or no effect on the odds for future players.
I found an old forgotten market with the only wager being 50$ made by a player who has been gone for months. Didn't want to ruin a market for others. First I made a large wager (250000$). Next I made a total of 8 100$ wagers on the other 5 options. Lastly I cashed out my first wager, losing 25,774.61$ (860.68$ from loss of value to my wager due to wagering on other options also and 24,913.93$ from selling fine).
Also the option I made and cashed out my large wager on can't win but wagering on it hasn't been cancelled yet(May 2011). Now I am left with 800$ in the market covering the remaining 5 options. Two of these (June 2011 and July 2011) also can't win but I am only experimenting. Which ever option wins I will receive between 95,000$ and 284,000$. After I cash in my wagers on the dead options I will have only 300$ in the market. This causes only a very minimal change in the odds for future wagerers on that market. When others use the system the odds are greatly altered on the 2 or 3 most likely options.
I tried this on a couple of other markets with similar results. In these I sold all of my positions and the odds when I left were exactly the same as when I arrived. Only evidence is a very large total market volume. I left my positions in place so you could check out what I did. If no one else wagers on this market you can see all 10 of my moves in the transaction tab. Let me know when you do so I can go back and cash in all of my positions.
Extended Continental Shelf Project: When will U.S and Canada work together again?
I followed your suggestion and tried an experiment the other night. It was very successful as you may have noticed from the wealth leaderboard. I sent you a direct message after but don't know if you got it or not. It was my first time trying a direct message and don't know how it works. I believe I have a new variation of the "clever strategy". With 5 minutes and a reliable internet connection I can get in, get out and make a profit with only a minimal or no effect on the odds for future players.
I found an old forgotten market with the only wager being 50$ made by a player who has been gone for months. Didn't want to ruin a market for others. First I made a large wager (250000$). Next I made a total of 8 100$ wagers on the other 5 options. Lastly I cashed out my first wager, losing 25,774.61$ (860.68$ from loss of value to my wager due to wagering on other options also and 24,913.93$ from selling fine).
Also the option I made and cashed out my large wager on can't win but wagering on it hasn't been cancelled yet(May 2011). Now I am left with 800$ in the market covering the remaining 5 options. Two of these (June 2011 and July 2011) also can't win but I am only experimenting. Which ever option wins I will receive between 95,000$ and 284,000$. After I cash in my wagers on the dead options I will have only 300$ in the market. This causes only a very minimal change in the odds for future wagerers on that market. When others use the system the odds are greatly altered on the 2 or 3 most likely options.
I tried this on a couple of other markets with similar results. In these I sold all of my positions and the odds when I left were exactly the same as when I arrived. Only evidence is a very large total market volume. I left my positions in place so you could check out what I did. If no one else wagers on this market you can see all 10 of my moves in the transaction tab. Let me know when you do so I can go back and cash in all of my positions.
Extended Continental Shelf Project: When will U.S and Canada work together again?
Hi,
Some days ago you asked on hfl's wall about "the strategy", as he calls it. As it is quite popular now, I am sending you the simplest experiment I did yesterday. Here is the bet sales log -
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? Slim loss 08/19/2011 10:06 +2,500.00$ 0.7% 08/19/2011 10:08 +338,436.82$ 15.6% +335,936.82$
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? Considerable loss 08/19/2011 10:06 +2,500.00$ 0.6% 08/19/2011 10:08 +234,261.56$ 4.8% +231,761.56$
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? Severe loss 08/19/2011 10:06 +2,500.00$ 0.6% 08/19/2011 10:08 +196,925.57$ 2.0% +194,425.57$
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? About even 08/19/2011 10:06 +500,000.00$ 98.6% 08/19/2011 10:07 +497,064.89$ 3.1% -2,935.11$
All bets were made on a practically virgin market, in reverse order, at around 10:05. After the first bet the odds for the bet option were at 99.7%.
I think that there is something wrong with this percentage - it shouldn't be that high, because as Hanson writes the bet itself changes the market, and if you want to put 500K in a 5K market, you just can't - the odds are different (integration)
Some days ago you asked on hfl's wall about "the strategy", as he calls it. As it is quite popular now, I am sending you the simplest experiment I did yesterday. Here is the bet sales log -
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? Slim loss 08/19/2011 10:06 +2,500.00$ 0.7% 08/19/2011 10:08 +338,436.82$ 15.6% +335,936.82$
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? Considerable loss 08/19/2011 10:06 +2,500.00$ 0.6% 08/19/2011 10:08 +234,261.56$ 4.8% +231,761.56$
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? Severe loss 08/19/2011 10:06 +2,500.00$ 0.6% 08/19/2011 10:08 +196,925.57$ 2.0% +194,425.57$
What will be the daily change of the DAX on 19.08.2011? About even 08/19/2011 10:06 +500,000.00$ 98.6% 08/19/2011 10:07 +497,064.89$ 3.1% -2,935.11$
All bets were made on a practically virgin market, in reverse order, at around 10:05. After the first bet the odds for the bet option were at 99.7%.
I think that there is something wrong with this percentage - it shouldn't be that high, because as Hanson writes the bet itself changes the market, and if you want to put 500K in a 5K market, you just can't - the odds are different (integration)
That is why I used the word "careful" so much - this is a high riscs game. I expect to lose 4,5m today with DAX and FTSE, because I didn´t watch the market enough and believed in some sunshine - but the US opening at suspend European markets makes this easy design markets more dangerous than DJIA, Nasdaq or Vix because the US influence makes the bets unpredictable some days.
Hi Ken,
I learned to bet succesful by others advice. Therefore I am happy about your input. Plaese comment on the next parts in the forum if you like. Every loophole is very tempting and I am no saint ;-) As an Admin settling a market one is much more ethical than as a player. In doubt discuss or let others settle. I am lucky about all the effort & competence in market creation & settling.
Have fun
Harald
I learned to bet succesful by others advice. Therefore I am happy about your input. Plaese comment on the next parts in the forum if you like. Every loophole is very tempting and I am no saint ;-) As an Admin settling a market one is much more ethical than as a player. In doubt discuss or let others settle. I am lucky about all the effort & competence in market creation & settling.
Have fun
Harald
keep in mind: the first 100$ of a prediction are payed out against the %-worth of the option at the time the prediction was made (before the change by the market maker), the part exceeding 100$ is payed out in conventional manner where the stake size determines the effective % your gain is based on. this is NOT reflected in the excel sheet, and may be part of the problem, since the gains on the first 100$ of a stake are much higher. the idea was to give small bets (of poorer players) an advantage over large bets (by rich players).
just posted a comment with that information on the market
DJIA point difference at close 08.08.2011?
DJIA point difference at close 08.08.2011?
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- Member since .
- Last login 04/26/2012 16:50.
- Positions bought 5000
- Comments posted 100
- Questions created 10
About me
Hi.Looks like a GREAT site congrats Kruijs! I wish you a LOT of success... thanks already for your efforts..As am a physicist, am happy to help with any mathematical work or dealing with science aspects - have a very broad range, in this area..
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