User Profile
hfl13
Member since 02/02/2011
All time highest net worth: 1,758,740.04 KtN$ (reached: 08/26/2013)
Current net worth : 9,445.98 KtN$
Predictions : 11,994
Wealth Development
- hour
- day
- week
- month
- year
Shouts
You may only post shouts on your friends' profiles
Thanks, I was going to congratulate myself on the wall, but I am balancing so precariously I thought I should wait until I was a bit more solid on the rose.
I think I'll wait and experiment some more. Rules seem volatile now.
if you like "high risk games", you ought to try the Japanese/Chinese/Korean, etc. board game GO...
I am a GO player from long ago, and it is the most "high risk game" i have ever encountered....
(it is a board game)..
info can be found here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_%28game%29
let me know if u are interested....
I am a GO player from long ago, and it is the most "high risk game" i have ever encountered....
(it is a board game)..
info can be found here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_%28game%29
let me know if u are interested....
Thanks for comment Harald. I learned more graphically today, about what I mentioned re the "paper value" given by the Hanson algorithm..
I had invested a LOT gradually in lots of options thinking the weekly DOW and S and P would rebound, based on what was happening in
the US markets... , and I thought it was pretty secure.., so i spent all my cash virtually, on this, and my paper "wealth" rose from just over 1+ Million to about 3 Million or so, despite having suffered losses a couple of days ago, when because of some problem, I couldnt access my bets...... The extra 2 Million came about by "paper gains", namely by reinforcing my bets , it drove my Hanson value function upwards.... Nevertheless, this is what i call "paper wealth", whatever ephemeral word you wish... meaning it is not real until the values
come to fruition.. Well with today's slide, i sold it all, so naturally, my value dropped down to 1+ Million and my paper wealth just evaporated.... C'est la vie..Ken
I had invested a LOT gradually in lots of options thinking the weekly DOW and S and P would rebound, based on what was happening in
the US markets... , and I thought it was pretty secure.., so i spent all my cash virtually, on this, and my paper "wealth" rose from just over 1+ Million to about 3 Million or so, despite having suffered losses a couple of days ago, when because of some problem, I couldnt access my bets...... The extra 2 Million came about by "paper gains", namely by reinforcing my bets , it drove my Hanson value function upwards.... Nevertheless, this is what i call "paper wealth", whatever ephemeral word you wish... meaning it is not real until the values
come to fruition.. Well with today's slide, i sold it all, so naturally, my value dropped down to 1+ Million and my paper wealth just evaporated.... C'est la vie..Ken
ps.... I wrote an apologetic note- "came clean on the gray question", where i affected a player's wealth..., by writing a short apology note in the discussion section, dealing with these kinds of trouble... Hope it is taken ok.. Thanks for your understanding.. I know it upset people.
hi harald,
the big fish are really biting...
WOW... i better go back into my little pond..
Ken
the big fish are really biting...
WOW... i better go back into my little pond..
Ken
Hi Harald,
Nice comments for newbies, on how to make $ and enjoy site.. a couple of things you might include when/if you add
future tips...
1) bet on things you know about;
2) be wary of betting on things that others have bet on, since the odds (%) might be too high,
and you can lose a LOT then, and gain little. so do not risk too much (or anything this way).
Nice comments for newbies, on how to make $ and enjoy site.. a couple of things you might include when/if you add
future tips...
1) bet on things you know about;
2) be wary of betting on things that others have bet on, since the odds (%) might be too high,
and you can lose a LOT then, and gain little. so do not risk too much (or anything this way).
Hej, ken. Please share your thoughts on the parameter b in the forum. I think it's a sensitive thing to change, because if you increase the market's liquidity and make it react more slowly the rich people will win more in the 70-95% area. But it's something to think about.
HI Harald,
I wrote a note to Stijn , about what i saw the problem.... and then a second email, about a possible way to fix it, but
I would need to do further work to understand it a little better...; if you send your email address, i can forward you what i sent him.
my email address is kennuth1 AT comcast Dot net Or, we can just discuss thing on the forum site... either way fine..
I think it is good to get the problems addressed... I basically think it has to do with the functional form of the probabilities
(which is a ln fcn), and that is right... so driving a function to a low level correctly allows one to bet on that and gain a lot of
that option cheaply... but then where does the money come from? when one sells the other options... Ideally, the people who then sell those other options should lose money, and this will make up for the amount gained on the winning option.. As it is now, the money
comes from KtheN. .... So the b value needs adjusting, etc... ken
I wrote a note to Stijn , about what i saw the problem.... and then a second email, about a possible way to fix it, but
I would need to do further work to understand it a little better...; if you send your email address, i can forward you what i sent him.
my email address is kennuth1 AT comcast Dot net Or, we can just discuss thing on the forum site... either way fine..
I think it is good to get the problems addressed... I basically think it has to do with the functional form of the probabilities
(which is a ln fcn), and that is right... so driving a function to a low level correctly allows one to bet on that and gain a lot of
that option cheaply... but then where does the money come from? when one sells the other options... Ideally, the people who then sell those other options should lose money, and this will make up for the amount gained on the winning option.. As it is now, the money
comes from KtheN. .... So the b value needs adjusting, etc... ken
hi harald,
am working on spreadsheet to see if i can fix problem, but am not 100% what actual problem is... (on improper probabilities/payouts etc.,
what i would call a non-linear effect, can you say when other options are bought more, and someone buys a small option it isn't raised enough probability-wise, or payout is too great, or what?) Have not been able to get a clear indication from Stijn...thx, ken
and hope to fix, but i need to identify problem, and/or what is ideal....(this is the problem.... first "identifying what the problem is"
I understand it generally, but i do not know what the ideal is..
am working on spreadsheet to see if i can fix problem, but am not 100% what actual problem is... (on improper probabilities/payouts etc.,
what i would call a non-linear effect, can you say when other options are bought more, and someone buys a small option it isn't raised enough probability-wise, or payout is too great, or what?) Have not been able to get a clear indication from Stijn...thx, ken
and hope to fix, but i need to identify problem, and/or what is ideal....(this is the problem.... first "identifying what the problem is"
I understand it generally, but i do not know what the ideal is..
Stats
- Member since .
- Last login 07/07/2012 06:20.
- Positions bought 10000
- Comments posted 200
- Questions created 100
About me
Category Ed.: General, Entertainment, Politics
First millionaire :-))))
First millionaire :-))))
Activity
Manoj Singh Parwal confirmed friendship invitation from
hfl13
la_serpiente confirmed friendship invitation from hfl13- hfl13 entered the site
Friends
kenneth1 
mayank 
kruijs 
growthy 
futarchy 
loneagle 
Shipov 
firedoglake 
la_serpiente purple_mary 
infernalmachine Theory 
Conspiracy2Riot 
gotmick 
uspais rdeggau adammccormicks 
PitchedOutsideLeg 
MartyMan 
Orlin 
Cheesenips 
Elli flasteph bgrigore 
gencha 
charlesf 
bernardo zvassil 
Josef Biesenberger 
cici 
grex 
NormalPride
© 2010-2025 Knew The News
