User Profile

hfl13

Member since 02/02/2011

All time highest net worth: 1,758,740.04 KtN$ (reached: 08/26/2013)

Current net worth : 9,352.62 KtN$

Predictions : 11,994

Most successfull member in community 8/2011Third successfull member in marketcreation 8/2011Most successfull member in communication 8/2011Third successfull member in predicting 8/2011Second most successfull member in community 7/2011Second most successfull member in communication 7/2011Third successfull member in predicting 7/2011Third successfull member in community 6/2011Third successfull member in communication 6/2011Third successfull member in predicting 6/2011Second most successfull member in community 5/2011Second most successfull member in marketcreation 5/2011Second most successfull member in communication 5/2011Second most successfull member in predicting 5/2011Third successfull member in community 4/2011Most successfull member in predicting 4/2011Second most successfull member in community 3/2011Most successfull member in communication 3/2011Most successfull member in predicting 3/2011Most successfull member in community 2/2011Most successfull member in communication 2/2011Third successfull member in predicting 2/2011

   hfl13

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook of 6-10 Hurricanes be correct?
#15 Ophelia became forceful tonite cat. 4 = 4th

   hfl13

Who will be the next world leader to resign?
Thanks and what if Putin resigns as PM to become President? Don´t know how they did it the last time.

   hfl13

What name will the second Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?
Hilary was on the wrong side of Mexico

   hfl13

Who will be the next world leader to resign?
@bernardo: you intend resign = step down by oneself in a close interpretation or including loosing votes of confidence or new elections. IIRC and in close interpretation that would have been the last was the unlucky japanese prime minister Naoto Kan.

IMO we suffer from the worst class of politicians in decades - why oh why?

And Harper just lost a vote of confidence - does a election defeat count for Harper, Obama, Berlusconi?

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?
And some betting after the fact - will settle with real time.

   hfl13

Will Obama's Speech Air at the Same Time as the 2011 NFL Regular Season Opener?
Poor Americans - how many will you get your TV disturbed by this lame duck.

   hfl13

Will Snoop Dogg set a new World Record gaining the most re-tweets?
Will wait for news - looks like he failed.

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?
Katia is only TS at the moment and underperforming - lookd more like a week 3 in 120 hours.

   hfl13

HSX:Will "The Change-Up" earn at least 35m in the dom box office during first 4 weeks?
This will get terrible close - see it today to influence your bet ;-)

   hfl13

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?
Looks like there could be one forming in the Gulf of Mexico now - Hurricane Katia seems to be aiming at Canada (based on Irenes path).

   hfl13

His days are numbered. Where will Gaddafi end up?
His rivals from the GOP primaries did it in an abbey.

   hfl13

Quick: How harmful will hurricane Irene be in New York State?
At least wikipedia does not discriminate the non New Yorkers. All American death ? What happens mith the caribbean casualties?

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 3 and above have of the 2011 season?
And this praise made Irene miss Florida! ;-)

   hfl13

His days are numbered. When will Gaddafi fall?
You got the timing wrong - Ghaddafi will be underground for years like OBL.

   hfl13

His days are numbered. Where will Gaddafi end up?
Fleeing seems to exclude getting caught. The option implies a successful flight.

   hfl13

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?
Damn Hurricane Irene might miss her geography ;-)

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?
At 5,5% Irene is now cheap. Its now Hurricane Irene (cat 1) and the chances for further strengthening have increased a lot because it now looks like Irene stays more at sea instead of crossing over Hispaneola and Cuba. Looks like Florida west coast and SC are the target.
NHC in 72 hours (8 am Thursday) 25% cat 2 17% cat 3 4% cat 4.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145813.shtml?table#contents

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?
Just enjoy buying Jose & Katia cheap (I sold Irene).

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 2 and above have of the 2011 season?
Just sold Irene - projection is for Cat 1 wind speed 9% cat 2 5% cat 3 1% cat 4 chance.

Thanks Ken - now everyone can bet serious money without explding the percentages. Couldn´t do that to my own market ;-)

   hfl13

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?
Will use CDT as timezone and NOAA announcement to define the time=day if Harvey becomes a Hurricane. Comments?

   hfl13

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?
Just had to edit the top option back in because there is a chance (up to 32% says NOAA) that Harvey developes into a hurricane today before making landfall in Belize.

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 2 and above have of the 2011 season?
I knew and watch and change almost daily - yesterday there even was the chance that it stayed tropical depression 8 but it made it to storm level. Prognosed wind speeds could make this into a cat 1 or 2 - or he goes for Texas instead Mexico.

Shush, don´t tell the others ;-)

   hfl13

Gold Price, what next?
$ 1,855.30

   hfl13

What will be the last official version of Firefox in 2011?
Firefox 6 is out - nice!

   hfl13

Will President Barack Obama beat them all on twitter?
http://twitaholic.com/ for the complette field - they don´t update each account daily therefore they are not used for settlement. As a general overview they are good until its gets close.

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 2 and above have of the 2011 season?
Why is there stil so much money on Franklin?

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 2 and above have of the 2011 season?
And a cat 5 too - take that as a bonus ;-) 2010 it started with a cat 2 Alex. Maybe I change that to cat 1 cat (3 cat) 4 next year and ask whether there will be a a cat 5 with yes/no and 33% for yes.

   hfl13

Which of these former leaders will die first?
Birth years and some comments on the junger participants:
Castro 1926
Noriega 1938 first 20 years in US prison now French prison and starting September up to 54 years / new trial in Panama
Habre 1942 still in Senegal but was sentenced to death in Chad in absentia
Thatcher 1925
Bush 1924
Kohl 1930


   hfl13

Which of these former leaders will die first?
A tasteful death market without being gross - I like it and everyone offendet can skip this market.

   hfl13

Golf: IN-GAME: PGA Championship: Winner ?
I really like playoffs and I even had some money on Bradley. Unfortunately I couldn´t acces the score on sunday or I might have prolonged it a bit. Hope our original author is back for the next mayor or non mayor title.

   hfl13

Who will win the Ames Straw Poll on August 13th?
Finished are: Pawlenty, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, McCotter, Palin
Write in Perry beats Frontrunner Romney (extemely bad result) - Romney should have done a little more 7th from 31,6%(2007) to 3,4%

1 Michele Bachmann 4,823 28.5%
2 Ron Paul 4,671 27.6%
3 Tim Pawlenty 2,293 13.6%
4 Rick Santorum 1,657 9.8%
5 Herman Cain 1,456 8.6%
6 Rick Perry (write-in) 718 4.3%
7 Mitt Romney 567 3.4%
8 Newt Gingrich 385 2.3%
9 Jon Huntsman 69 0.4%
10 Thaddeus McCotter 35 0.2%
— Scattering 162 1.0%

   hfl13

Will President Barack Obama beat them all on twitter?
https://twitter.com/#!/BarackObama
Only settles on original data from twitter
http://twitaholic.com/ for a fast view (could lag a few days for some accounts)

   hfl13

How many of THESE people will be selected to be on the super Debt Committee to consider handling the US debt issues?
Luckyly 12 had many other functions and was never popular. My intention is to fix small and very small mistakes and only void when really neccessary. By posting that comment everyone that was concerned should have known and only 2 dem reps on that list should have been obvious. These 1% errors sort itself out fast and can be corrected unsuspended. I only posted this that the author of a creative new question has a chance to improve future designs. I made similar mistakes myself.

Normally the option 12 would be out as no longer possible - the option is only open for the case of Worldwar III or on Asteroid crashing into Earth ...

or the parties agree to a different mechanism to acchieve more in face of the current crises ... lol.

With more than one of the above maybe he covered half or non voting members - its crazy congress.

   hfl13

How many of THESE people will be selected to be on the super Debt Committee to consider handling the US debt issues?
By the way 12 was never possible because there were only two D reps on the list if you don´t asume that Eric Cantor or Paul Ryan are hidden Ds and will be named by Nancy Pelosi. (The President would name them as Dems ;-)

   hfl13

How many of THESE people will be selected to be on the super Debt Committee to consider handling the US debt issues?
Republicans named their 6 members today and there are 3 more from the list - total 4. will edit out the other options no langer possible.
On the Senate side, Sens. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) will serve on the commission, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced. Reps. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) will represent House Republicans, said Speaker John Boehner.

All six Republicans have signed a pledge to Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform that they will not vote to raise taxes.

   hfl13

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
And the most important: Will thay make a movie ? Ooops

   hfl13

Gold Price, what next?
Looking fine today.

   hfl13

Which anti-riot weapon will be used by UK police during the current violent protests first?
Maybe this is the right time to start a Scotish independance market?

   hfl13

Will Rick Perry run for President by end of October 2011?
Yes looks like Romney, Perry and a Tea Party candidate. If his origin (Texas governor) and sezzesion ideas don´t disturb his electabilty than he looks like a much better and more conservative Romney especially on jobs - game over Obama. Perry is polling very strong in South Carolina and is in the lead in Florida. His path to the nomination seems clear with winning lots of Southern & western states and Texas & Florida alone have a bundle of delegates. Money and relations won´t be a problem for him.

   hfl13

US Presidential Elections 2012: Who will be the Republican Nominee?
Rick Perry will tell his intentions on Saturday and stell the Ames Thunder.

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What position will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,134.2 $343.1 30.2% $791.1 69.8% 2011
now I am waiting for some China numbers to guess if HP has a shot at Titanic

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What worlwide BO will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,134.2 $343.1 30.2% $791.1 69.8% 2011

   hfl13

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize ?
You want the USA behaving like China give the price to Assenage :-)

   hfl13

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize ?
Someone deserving would be nice this time!

   hfl13

Gold Price, what next?
about 1720 now

   hfl13

DJIA point difference at close 08.08.2011?
Like the redign!

   hfl13

What will be S&P next US credit rating?
@kruijs that was my reasoning against S&P´s Friday downgrade. Now I take them more seriously. They want real 4+ billion cuts and behaving politicians if not ....

The outlook at all three rating agencys is negative. As Canada & Australia show it takes years to gain back AAA once it is lost and the fundamentals still look terrible without tax increases and political deadlock till November 2012.

   hfl13

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Updated Hurricane Season Outlook of 3-5 major (cat 3+) Hurricanes be correct?
I just thought that gotmick left out the most intersting market and didn´t want to all the work myself. The first line is from me and I updated the NOAA numbers.

I changed the odds because 0-2 and 6+ are big enough areas that justified a higher odd IMO espially if they upgraded the numbers for named & hurricanes. Glad to give you the opportunity and by betting no I will give you another ;-)

   hfl13

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook of 12-18 Named Storms be correct?
NOAA Update:

Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said his agency now expects 14 to 19 named storms, up from the 12 to 18 they forecast in May. Of those, seven to 10 could become hurricanes (up from six to 10 in May), and three to five could become Category 3 storms, with winds of 111 mph or more. That's down slightly from the figure of three to six in the May forecast. NOAA's forecast for an above-average hurricane season comes with an 85 percent confidence factor, up from 65 percent in May. There is a 15 percent chance for an average season.

   hfl13

Will the NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook of 6-10 Hurricanes be correct?
NOAA Update:

Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said his agency now expects 14 to 19 named storms, up from the 12 to 18 they forecast in May. Of those, seven to 10 could become hurricanes (up from six to 10 in May), and three to five could become Category 3 storms, with winds of 111 mph or more. That's down slightly from the figure of three to six in the May forecast. NOAA's forecast for an above-average hurricane season comes with an 85 percent confidence factor, up from 65 percent in May. There is a 15 percent chance for an average season.

   hfl13

What will be S&P next US credit rating?
Ask Greece, Portugal, Ireland.

Once the wall is brooken. I expect Moody & Finch to follow in a few month and then if the Supercongress fails they downgrade again.

This just shows how stupid the President & Republicans were - we just have to hope that the people thank them accordingly.

   hfl13

What will be S&P next US credit rating?
Negative outlook says it all - wrong starting odds.

   hfl13

Will the Debt Committee propose to raise taxes?
That is the problem you have all Republkicans (except Ron Paul) and 50% of Dems in the hand of Big Money and the rich. 6Rs and maybe 1D say no and thats it. The automatic cut is not written into that law by chance. It is the likely outcome - no deal.

   hfl13

Will the Debt Committee propose to raise taxes?
@ken : I simply have to laugh at that question - No is very clear - neither conservative caucus nor the Tea Party caucus will vote for something like that. Dream on Dems.

Bet against me if you like.

   hfl13

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?
They were never this powerful. Company evil overlond "S&P" wants to kill the economy worldwide? Now would be the moment to cause a severe crisis. My bet they won´t dare or they get burned on the stake ;-)

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?

UPDATE 3-Emily breaks up over Haiti, still threatens rains
04 Aug 2011

   hfl13

How many "blue" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of August 2011?
7 (+1) kenneth1 & PitchedOutsideLeg just red and kruijs still orange.

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What position will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
6 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,041.2 $328.0 31.5% $713.2 68.5% 2011
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV $1,033.0 $238.4 23.1% $794.6 76.9% 2011
8 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $1,024.3 $334.2 32.6% $690.1 67.4% 2010
9 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $1,010.7 $340.4 33.7% $670.2 66.3% 2011

   hfl13

Will the Debt Committee propose to raise taxes?
Thanks for a good laugh !

   hfl13

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?
Someone should tell that our Moody-Friends. Not following their market ...

   hfl13

Will Katy Perry beat Jacko's Singles Record?
Nice idea - nice odds.

   hfl13

DJIA: How will it perform this week (#31)?
And two $50000 chips from me. If kruijs would only pay 1 Ct for 10$ I would quit my job.

   hfl13

How many "gray" players will be in the Leaderboard at end of August 2011?
Edited the market back to the old wording. Have fun! Mean author is watching for late developements with inactive members positions ...
and I have enough money to change things or void or ...

   hfl13

Will the Supreme Court hear a case about the Constitutionality of "Obamacare" during its next term?
"As soon as the next term" - do you intend till October or in the full next term (don´t know how long that is) ?

   hfl13

Libya escalation: Will Libya use chemical or biological weapons?
Will this be prolonged or be settled near suspend date?

   hfl13

Will Sarah Palin ever give a "direct answer" to a direct question about whether she is running (for President)?
I expect a statement of her (no answer) but of course she may be interviewed by Fox.

She lost her window for a successful campain.

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 3 and above have of the 2011 season?
Be aware: I just edited the last option to include no cat 3+ this year. You now have 3 Month left to use that option.
There was a marginal gap - follow the discussion for Cat 4. here: What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 2 and above have of the 2011 season?
Be aware: I just edited the last option to include no cat 2+ this year. You now have 3 Month left to use that option.
There was a marginal gap - follow the discussion for Cat 4. here: What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?

   hfl13

What name will the first Hurricane category 4 and above have of the 2011 season?
Be aware: I just edited the last option to include no cat 4+ this year. You now have 3 Month left to use that option.

   hfl13

When will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" be the #1 movie of 2011?
The last post was regarding kenneth1´s post in the forum: because of that I unsuspended the question because the outcome is still in doubt - if someone wants to change or uninvest.

   hfl13

When will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" be the #1 movie of 2011?
Movies are out roughly 60 days. The Movie had a recordbreaking first weekend but was relatively underperforming afterwards. The design (and my first bets) were expecting the #1 much earlier but I included "and later" on purpose because I want to cover every possibility.

I expect the movie to become # 1 in the next two weeks but I could be wrong again.

Never means the movie was unable to beat Transformers 3 (or another movie) for #1. The suspend date had nothing to do with time of settlement.

   hfl13

Will Michele Bachmann appear in the 15th season of South Park?
I made the "two l mistake" myself.

   hfl13

Will Michele Bachmann appear in the 15th season of South Park?
What a picture- 5 stars !

   hfl13

Will Michele Bachmann win the Republican Caucus in Iowa?
Thanks Cheesenips - my mistake - the right link is http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749797. Sorry must have been my preparation for the just posted Ames market. Today michele bachmann is 46,9 for Iowa.

I am looking for nice state pictures to start a batch of early primary markets like Iowa, NH, SC.

   hfl13

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
There was criticism by rating agencies when Italy intended to put the savings into the next term & government - now the USA is doing the same - that is definetely not AAA.

   hfl13

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
The chances for a President Romney, Perry or Bachmann are now quite high. A second Obama term without Senate & House will be terrible - try again in 2016 with new democrats or a new third party. Time is running out.

Polititians worldwide can´t handle money/debt - except in Norway.

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What position will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
8 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,008.9 $318.5 31.6% $690.4 68.4% 2011
9 The Dark Knight WB $1,001.9 $533.3 53.2% $468.6 46.8% 2008
10 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $983.0 $338.0 34.4% $645.0 65.6% 2011

   hfl13

When will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" be the #1 movie of 2011?
4 2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $21,977,093 $318,511,602
8 4 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $6,086,311 $338,007,725
19,5m to close the gap

   hfl13

By when will Belgium form a government?
Who needs a government?

   hfl13

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
Its easy in the Senate but it could still be derailed by Tea Party, conservatives & liberals in the house.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/pelosi-none-of-us-may-support-debt-limit-deal.php?ref=dcblt

   hfl13

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
Missed the train here - now I have to stick with no.

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What position will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
13 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $936.3 $331.9 35.5% $604.3 64.5% 2011
14 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $934.4 $302.0 32.3% $632.5 67.7% 2009
15 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $926.5 $296.5 32.0% $630.0 68.0% 2011

   hfl13

From which party will be UK's MP with the most sex-appeal at the end of July?
Wanted to start the male version for August to continue this great Market but the first 12 are Conservative.

Is it necessary to look like a model to be a conservative or do they have a worlfamous photographer?

   hfl13

From which party will be UK's MP with the most sex-appeal at the end of July?
Now I know why the Conservatives won the last election ! Tried the german version - what horrors! Can I please vote in the UK?

   hfl13

When will Barack Obama have 10 million followers on twitter?
Newest twitter comparison:
Now similar to Barack Obama:
Britney Spears
It’s Britney Bitch!

   hfl13

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
Sorry - this is Sience not my Category General - the former post was only my opinion.

   hfl13

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
No news means no news at all - because option b) covers staying at the zoo. Will look into the timeline, when I settle.

   hfl13

How many "blue" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of July 2011?
JULY Yes - thats the real danger of paste & copy or "duplicate" - arrrrrgh.

   hfl13

How many "blue" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of July 2011?
@cici: This settles 31th June 23:59 CET.

   hfl13

How many "blue" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of July 2011?
Yes you are the changing factor.

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What position will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
With weekend estimates worldwide 27. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $834.6 $274.2 32.9% $560.4 67.1% 2011

   hfl13

When will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach 1 billion worldwide?
With weekend estimates worldwide 27. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $834.6 $274.2 32.9% $560.4 67.1% 2011

   hfl13

All time Top 10: What position will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" reach?
46 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $693.4

   hfl13

When will the US Congress agree to raise the debt limit?
Time is running out - what a miserable game !

   hfl13

DJIA: How will it perform this week (#29)?
Wednesday: 12,571.91

   hfl13

S&P500: How will it perform this week (#29)?
Wednesday: 1,325.84

   hfl13

When will "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" be the #1 movie of 2011?
Sorry was intendet for Alltime Top 10
1st Weekend 169,2 (HP7.2) vs 302,8 (Tra 3)
Monday HP + 15,2m

   hfl13

Golf: IN-GAME: The Open: Winner ?
Donald, Westwood, Kuchar, McDowell and Watney missed the cut.

   hfl13

S&P500: How will it perform this week (#28)?
Wednesday: 1,317.72 4.08 0.31% (only daily change)

   hfl13

DJIA: How will it perform this week (#28)?
wednesday: 12,491.61 44.73 0.36% (only daily change)

   hfl13

S&P500: How will it perform this week (#28)?
Tuesday: 1,313.64 -5.85 -0.44%
Monday: 1,319.49

   hfl13

DJIA: How will it perform this week (#28)?
Tuesday 12,446.88 -58.88 -0.47% (only daily change)

   hfl13

On which university will Emma Watson continue her studies?
And the winner is ... Oxford!

   hfl13

DJIA: How will it perform this week (#28)?
Monday: 12,505.76 -151.44 -1.20%
Friday: 12,657.20

   hfl13

Which movie will be #2 this weekend ?
I gave a fifth option "other movie" with 0% but that option vanished. Will have to void in case ... sorry.

   hfl13

Who will shave "stewardess" Richard Branson's legs?
Who makes the Branson Irish sea market?

   hfl13

HSX:Will "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" earn at least 278m in the dom box office during first 4 weeks?
Edited Tuesday 28th out - BOM counts the previews as day 0.

   hfl13

S&P500: How will it perform this week (#26)?
Wednesday 1,307.41

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Out in round Quarter Finals:
Paszek, Pironkova, Bartoli, Cibulkova

   hfl13

S&P500: How will it perform this week (#26)?
Monday 1,280.10 +11.65 +0.92%
Friday Close 1,268.45

   hfl13

DJIA: How will it perform this week (#26)?
Monday 12,043.56 108.98 +0.91%
Friday Close 11,934.58

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the men's singles?
& Juan Martin Del Potro

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the men's singles?
Out in round 4:
Richard Gasquet
Tomas Berdych

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Out in round 4:
Caroline Wozniacki
Serena Williams
Venus Williams

   hfl13

Who will be chief of the IMF on July 1st, 2011?
Just deactivated the names without nomination. In case that there is no new Chief on July 1st this m can´t be settled und will be voided:
DSK retired, Lipsky only acting, no IMF not in the M design as Other.

   hfl13

By when will Belgium form a governement?
Having a government is overrated ;-)

   hfl13

US Presidential Election 2012: How much will the winner raise?
Money is a perversion of speech.

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the men's singles?
old
John Isner lost (round 2)
Milos Raonic lost (round 2)

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the men's singles?
Robin Soderling lost (round 3)

   hfl13

What will happen to Happy Feet, New Zealand's wayward penguin?
I really like kruijs Politics Ms ! Kudos !

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Julia Goerges out (round 3)

   hfl13

100 days sober... When will be LiLo's next collaps?
How do you know LiLo is still alive - failed booze test.

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Samantha Stosur (round 1)

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Vera Zvonareva (round 3)

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Jelena Jankovic out in round 1

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the women's singles?
Andrea Petkovic lost

   hfl13

Wimbledon: Who will win the men's singles?
Andy Roddick lost

   hfl13

VIX: % Change at close Tue Jun 21st?
Yes - won 8K with 300 invested :-)

   hfl13

What will be the last official version of Firefox in 2011?
Firefox 5 today - great!

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DJIA: How will it perform this week (#25)?
Close was 12,004.36 on the 17th.

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NASDAQ Percentage Change at close Tue Jun 21st?
zvassil is chasing me - now i have to use my 700K cash reserve again.

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Will Amanda Knox's Murder Conviction Be Overturned?
Changed the suspend to 30th July. IMO then there shoud be a further prolongation and thats it.
Your opinion?

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Will Barack Obama keep his 2008 campaign promises?
135 Promises kept vs. 152 Combined

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NBA Finals-2011 series: Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat - Who will win?
Will this reopen after thenext game?

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How many "colored" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of May 2011?
There is a lot of volatility in this Market - there is only a small chance to influence the outcome yourself, but if you manage congrats!

You need a conspiracy of five ;-)

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When will the US increase the debt limit - again?
Lets watch how destructive US Polics can be ...

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International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn: Guilty of attempted rape?
Changed the suspend date to make it clear that this waits for a verdict in the "state" trial against DSK. The suspend date will be prolonged if necessary. For events like this it is possible that the Market is still open when it can be settled. I intend to use the precise time the news broke to cut off "betting after the fact".

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How much will "Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" make on its US opening weekend?
Saw the movie yesterday and saw a dying franchise. Disneys mistakes are:
3D adds nothing = a total failure - watch it in 2D!
Weak CGIs and action scenes
Weak story, terrible director - without Gore Verbinski back I will sit out the fifth movie.
Only Jack Sparrow left in the poster - this is telling. The villain (Mc Shane from Deadwood) the romance interest (should have replaced pregnant Cruz), new young hero and young mermaid all deep below the original cast. But I bet they were cheap in comparison. They need stronger stories, a new two part story arc and a new cast. Another movie like this and even Johnny Depp will need replacement.

I want that 3D money back. C

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Will there be a ninth season of Two and a Half Men?
Waitet for the CBS fall lineup today.

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Will Charlie Sheen Record And Release A Single With Snoop Dogg?
Is this settle at suspend?

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Eurovision Song Contest: Will Google correctly predict the winner?
Azerbaian was 7th with 90 points - waiting for google to update to 13th or 14th to settle.

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Soccer: Who will have more points at the end of the season - ManUtd or AC Milan?
ManUtd 76 AC Milan 78 both 36 games

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How many "gray" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of May 2011?
16
cici, you are calculated in !

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Who will be crowned FHM's Sexiest Woman 2011?
As feared this has to be voided. With no "other" option.
FHH 2011 Sexiest
1. Rosie Huntington-Whitely
2. Katy Perry
3. Rihanna
4. Megan Fox
5. Olivia Wilde

Michael Bay seems to have bought both elections ;-)

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IIHF Icehockey 2011 World Championships: Who will be the winner?
Slowenia, Belarus, Austria, Latvia out

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Will Jessica Simpson Be Choosen As A Judge on This Upcoming Season's X-Factor?
Abdul & Cole storng candidates - but not confirmed.

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Who will be crowned FHM's Sexiest Woman 2011?
Maxim Hottest Women Top 100
1. Rosie Huntington-Whitely
2. Olivia Munn
3. Katy Perry
4. Cameron Diaz
5. Mila Kunis

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American Idol 2011: Age of winner?
Lauren Alaina 16
James Durbin 22
Jacob Lusk 23
Scotty McCreery 17
Haley Reinhart 20

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The Knew The News Mug Contest: How many players will reach +500% net worth during May?
I will do it ;-) Still remember March ! Go cici!

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Arab Spring 2011: Which will be the next country leader to resign or be dismissed?
:-) Iran was mentioned for two leaders (religious & political)

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Will Osama bin Laden ever be caught?
Second term Obama.

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Will Osama bin Laden ever be caught?
Closing down the two oldest wars. Saving 50% on defence, wars & security.

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Soccer: Who will have more points at the end of the season - ManUtd or AC Milan?
ManUtd 73 AC Milan 77 both 35 games

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On how many shows will Charlie Sheen perform during his "My Violent Torpedo of Truth/Defeat is Not an Option" tour?
Charlie Sheen did it but the success of his tour and his tv shows were mediocre. I bet he and CBS are both very sorry about the split. Looks like there will only be "Losers".

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Arab Spring 2011: Which will be the next country leader to resign or be dismissed?
Part 2: There needs to be some pressure to "resign" IMO to connect with the Arab Spring background. A regular election (lol) a natural death or a normal and orderly change of regime in a country without protests shouldn´t count. If the King of Marocco resigns for his son/brother that would be resign in the sense of this Market: some protests + change in Leadership. For the sense of this M there is mostly only one leader (king/president) - if they fire their PM o cabinet that does not count. (Iran maybe a special case).
I promise to check before settling ;-)

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Arab Spring 2011: Which will be the next country leader to resign or be dismissed?
@charlesf: Resign or not? We will check all "out of power sitations" carefully - but the word resign should be interpreted loosely - not only "he resigned" but "he was resigned" will settle as that country. Got killed/arrested will settle the same.

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US Presidential Elections 2012: Who will be the Republican Nominee?
David Patraeus looks like the new CIA director - smart Obma move.

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US Presidential Elections 2012: Who will be the Republican Nominee?
Ron Paul will explore (Others)

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Soccer: Who will have more points at the end of the season - ManUtd or AC Milan?
ManUtd 73 AC Milan 74 both 34 games - sorry Milan was 71 last time

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English Premier League 2010-11: Which team will keep the most number of clean sheets?
1 Manchester City 32 14
2 Chelsea 33 14
3 Man Utd 33 14
4 Arsenal 33 12
5 Sunderland 33 12
6 Liverpool 33 12

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Soccer: Who will have more points at the end of the season - ManUtd or AC Milan?
ManUtd 70 AC Milan 72 both 33 games

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Will "Zeilmeisje" Laura Dekker be the youngest to have sailed round the globe?
Dekker would have to finish before 16 September 2012

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Who will have better Alexa ranking by the end of 2011?
Futuriti.com 686,887
News-guru.com 1,871,654
Crowdpark.com 936,581
Knewthenews.com 2,809,690

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US Presidential Elections 2012: Who will be the Republican Nominee?
Does it make sense to edit/add Trump & Bachmann to split up Others to better follow the fun?

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Movie duel: "Rio" vs. "Scream 4"
Rio 3,826 theaters
Scream 4 3,305 theaters

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Will the US shutdown on Friday, midnight?
Isn´t it forbidden in the rules to use Fox for settlement? ;-)
Quoting Glenn Beck and his "logic" can change any outcome.

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Ivory Coast crisis: Laurent Gbagbo or Alassane Ouattara?
IMO by suspension or before the first three can happen and other wins if the situation is undecided. Battles for 2,5 month with many death will than definitely be civil war. But if one party wins or a third party controls Ivory Cost (coup) the first three options win.

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Rebels or Kaddafi ?
... and Italy recognized the Rebels today.

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Rebels or Kaddafi ?
The Rebels can´t loose this year (next year mybe - being left to fight for their own)
The Rebels can win with French troops (Foreign Legion maybe enough but two divisions will definetely do the trick.

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US Presidential Elections 2012: Who will be the Democratic Nominee?
Unfortunatey this can be settled soon.

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How many of Germany's seven shut down nuclear power plants will remain offline, after the security review?
Thanks for the clarification.
Now we can count reactors & collect news.

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Soccer: Who will have more points at the end of the season - ManUtd or AC Milan?
ManUtd 63 AC Milan 62 both 30 games

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How many of Germany's seven shut down nuclear power plants will remain offline, after the security review?
Here are the names of the seven reactors: Biblis A, Bilblis B, Brunsbüttel, Neckarwestheim 1, Phillipsburg 1, Unterweser, Isar 1

If there is an 8th reactor that includes Krümmel. kruijs has to declare if he intended other 7.

BTW the "five points ahead" turned into 3 points behind in the results.



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Will the life of German nuclear plants be significantly shortened again?
Looks very good for Yes - yesterday the smaller coalition partner (FDP liberal very pro nuclear till now) demanded that the 8 old reakters were put out of use permanently. They were planed for average 8 years longer than before.

Germany coalition is not governing well - just has luck with economy and profits a lot from the last government. At the moment Japan looks more and more like a long nuclear waste story and nuclear power was always a high emotions topic in Germany. With opinion to be against nuclear with 70%+ for 2011 no party could afford pro nuclear at the moment. The only option for the energy companies is going to court. The states (especialy Baden Würthemberg the staete that will have a green prime minister has 4 reactors and a state mojority in the owner). The states have always the options to make nuclear far too expensive by rising security standards.

By the way 3 german states voted sunday and the greens doubeld & trippled their vote in all three states (21,8m inhabitants).
The Greens have a good chance to take over the stae of Berlin in the next elections too.

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Will Gaddafi fall with the help of the international coalition?
The rebells need 3 month to built a halfway decent "army"if that is possible at all. Otherwise the alliance needs to go after Gaddafi or the country will split. Both options and ground troops are problematic with the international alliance and the UN mandate.

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How many "gray" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of March 2011?
This settles 31st March 23:59 CET.

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James Bond - Who will be the next Bond Girl?
Just voted or my favorite 7 non pregnant bond girls.

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James Bond - Who will be the next Bond Girl?
This asks main bond girl?

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Where will Gaddafi end up?
Maybe we can get a follow up for 6month/a year that seperates stays in power in Libya from the rest of Africa?

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Euro 2012 Qualifying: Germany - Kazakhstan, who will win on 26 March?
Go Kazakhstan! - simply had to take that - odds were too good ;-(

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Which of these couples will be confirmed first?
Still some posibility for SB & RR left - can you find new combinations, more couples to continue the M?

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Firefox 4: How many downloads in the first three days?
Now 36m - impressive.

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Movie duel: "Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2" vs. "Sucker Punch"
Beware: In the settlement Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules gets 5,4m for even odds!

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How many "gray" players will be in the Leaderboard at the End of March 2011?
9 (-1) But there are now 6 green players.

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How Many Pounds Of Food Will Be Donated On Tuesday March 22nd?
Be careful they are skipping the statistics on some days now.

We will wait a few days if the results for March 22 will show. If not we use the nearest values from both sides divided by two to settle.

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Which movie will win this weekend ?
This should have run a day longer - sorry.

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How much of any assets (being related to Mubarak and his family) will be reported as frozen by the suspension date?
We will need lots of help to settle this? With lots of countries involved - please post sources here.

By the way does Mubarak look like Gaddafi?
http://www3.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/16/kerry-us-freezes-mubaraks-assets/

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Where will Gaddafi end up?
Kennuth - no problem at all - these markets are difficult to create with fair and non ambiguus language.

But there are 2 questions "we" need your and other betters input:
In the context of the "No-Fly-Zone" and the start of anther Merry-go-round (or is that Muammar-go-round ;-) )
1. When should we settle?
2. Which option has Muammar staying in power? Africa (incl. Libya) or the last ones "other"?

Feedback please ...

Den Haag is Europe ;-)

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Which movie will win this weekend ?
Theaters:
Paul 2,801
Limitless 2,756
The Lincoln Lawyer 2,707

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Nuclear Disaster Japan: Will fallout reach USA ?
Hawaii?, Alaska? Rest (48 states) or some silly US Island?

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Soccer - Europa League: Manchester City vs. Dynamo Kiev - Who will win?
Thanks know I can bet more on this kind of M(arket)!

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Where will Gaddafi end up?
It looks like he dies of old age in Libya.

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Dow Poker: Best poker hand at close Thu 17 March ?
By disallowing the first digits you damage the chances of the higher options.

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Soccer - Europa League: Manchester City vs. Dynamo Kiev - Who will win?
Win as in Advance or this game?

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Dow Poker: Best poker hand at close Wed 16 March ?
Yes they are big fun!

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Will Charlie Sheen beat Demi Moore on twitter by March 13th?
Want to know how much cocaine Charlie Sheen snorted?

Enough to kill Two and a Half Men

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Will Barack Obama keep his 2008 campaign promises?
134 Promises kept vs. 150 Combined

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For what price will "Portrait 5, Stephen(s)" be auctioned?
Three bids - starting bid was $ 5000

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Where will Gaddafi end up?
Will this settle at the end of 2011 or closely after suspension?

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Will Charlie Sheen beat Demi Moore on twitter by March 13th?
:-)
1,964K one week to go

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Pwn2Own 2011: Which of these web browsers will come out flawless?
Wow - didn´t know markets could have more than 10 outcomes !

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Will Charlie Sheen beat Demi Moore on twitter by March 13th?
1,884K great SNL skit

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Which of these couples will be confirmed first?
Scarlett Johansson was seen with Sean Penn in Mexico - wrong guy ;-)

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How many pages of Knewthenews.com will be indexed by Google as of July 31, 2011?
2390 don´t know what mistake gave 3440.

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Will the US Government shutdown in 2 + weeks?
Can you fix the budget? I did have a surplus of 408,5 billion & safe social security in 2015. Try it yorself & have fun slashing the budget.
http://public-consultation.org/exercise/
Results at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/03/deficit-public-sentiment_n_830986.html

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NASDAQ Percentage Change at close Thu 3 March ?
I have 2,5K - hidden.
It makes sense to use "publish" to give the author a fair chance to bet on the own market.

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Choice Music Prize: Irish Album Of The Year
Live Event starts 7pm local time tomorrow

The Choice Music Prize Live Event will take place on Thursday March 3rd at Vicar St, Dublin.

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What will be Apple Inc's market capitalization after Tuesday, March 2nd?
Be careful - looks like the Market Cap is only calculated once a day 321.81 Bil

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What will be the Gallup Presidential Job Approval rate change for Barack Obama in the week ending 06.03.2011?
This Q would be more interesting with a daily question once a week. Daily there are huge changes.
IIRC galup asks about 500 persons a day the daily value is mixed out of the last 3 days (1500+) the weekly uses all seven days (3500+)
The weekly value is very steady.

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Which number will be chosen the least?
6 & 7 had 8,84% at suspension each.
Which number will be chosen the least?
First settled as 6 than resettled as 7.

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Academy Award Nominations (Oscar): Best Supporting Actor
If you are in Oscar mood - have fun!
http://www.youtube.com/user/BeyondTheTrailer#p/u/0/bF28gKuMj7o

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Academy Award Nominations (Oscar): Best Director
If you are in Oscar mood - have fun!
http://www.youtube.com/user/BeyondTheTrailer#p/u/9/BtxHRniXXdc

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Academy Award Nominations (Oscar): Best Supporting Actress
If you are in Oscar mood - have fun!

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Academy Award Nominations (Oscar): Best Actress
If you are in Oscar mood - have fun!

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Academy Award Nominations (Oscar): Best Actor
If you are in Oscar mood - have fun!

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Academy Award Nominations (Oscar): Best Picture
If you are in Oscar mood - have fun!


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Who will be crowned FHM's Sexiest Woman 2011?
My votes 2011:
Scarlett Johansson
Rachel Bilson
Keira Knightley
Shakira
Tricia Helfer
Summer Glau
Candice Swanepoel
Olivia Wilde
Emma Watson
Zoe Saldana
and Megan Fox
Thanks for a fun 30 minutes. And now I wager a bet on Megan here.

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Who will be crowned FHM's Sexiest Woman 2011?
2010
1. Cheryl Cole (& 2009)
2. Megan Fox (2008)
3. Marissa Miller
4. Frankie Sandford
5. Keeley Hazell
37. Katy Perry
43. Rihanna
73. Nicole Scherzinger

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Who will be crowned FHM's Sexiest Woman 2011?
Thanks - was even tempted to create a quesion with more options. Don´t beieve in Megan for #1 ... grrr. Am now drawn to follow your links.

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Movie duel: "I Am Number Four" vs. "Unknown"
After Presidents Day weekend Unknown leads with 2,7m -three days to go.

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Will The Movie Amanda Knox: Murder On Trial In Italy Air On Lifetime February 21st?
Looking good - still on the schedule 9pm today at: http://www.mylifetime.com/lifetime-tv-schedule - can be settled tomorrow.

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Which movie will win the Presidents Day weekend ?
Estimates are out :Unknown leads Gnomeo by 0,797m and I am #4 by 3,02m.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=07a&p=.htm

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Who will be crowned FHM's Sexiest Woman 2011?
Please add other the next time. There are plenty off other candidates like Rosie Huntington-Whiteley at 12/1 whose chances are above 1% and the last few years there were some surprises on top. Great question. No bet on these 6 from me and only Megan Fox would get my vote for Top 10.

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Movie duel: "I Am Number Four" vs. "Unknown"
Was that the link you wantet (end of text) ? I intend a clash of blockbusters for this kind of Q - same month - same weekend not often. That is covered by the #1 Q.

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When will Mozilla release official version of Firefox 4?
Its beta 11 now - is Mozilla aiming for a new beta record?

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Race to join the 6 figure club: Who will be the third to reach a net worth of $100,000?
Not today - lost my daily winnings 10K and 12K potential when Nasdaq went wrong the final 5 minutes.
But the million is planed for 2011.

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The Sudan is about to split in two. Which other hotspot will split next?
10 Years - KtN is here o stay!
Can´t they split next week, please?

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Race to join the 6 figure club: Who will be the third to reach a net worth of $100,000?
Like the Q - can I create second to $ 250.000?

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Will Berlusconi spend time in jail after sex trial ?
Has he spent any time in jail yet ? Owning media and making laws always comes in handy!

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How much money will "I am number four" make President´s Day weekend?
Edited real theater numbers +154

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Which movie will win this weekend ?
Nice 9K and only 300 mine.

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Which movie will win this weekend ?
Very interesting - my bets were on the Bieber because of better odds. That raionale seems to have captured others :-)
Weekend estimates are out at BOM - Sandler leeds by 0.74m.
Who´s numbers are real - who has the better Sunday.

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Which movie will win this weekend ?
The #1 batte seems to be quite popular ;-)
@Theory: Thans, will edit myself the next time.

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Which movie will win this weekend ?
Sorry forgot category this time.

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Who will be the next world leader to resign?
Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali on January 14th ? Does he count?

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Will WikiLeaks win the Nobel Peace Prize ?
Saw this news in the morning - great question !